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000
FXUS65 KGJT 250004
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
604 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation chances increase Thursday with widespread valley
  rain and mountain snow showers. Snow levels will be around 8-9
  kft and accumulation on the roads will be most likely at
  night.

- Cooler and unsettled conditions are expected continue through
  the weekend with an increasing probability of significant
  high elevation snow accumulations and travel impacts through
  early Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Southwest flow is beginning to ramp up across the region ahead
of the next system, which is currently making landfall in
California. Some moisture has pooled up in the northern third
of forecast area, so surface heating has resulted in shower
development. This convection is terrain-driven and may last
through the evening. More wind than rain is possible in spots
based on dry low levels. Perhaps gusts upwards of 40 mph could
occur. Tonight that shortwave trough progresses eastward leaving
us in warm southwest flow. Night time temperatures in these
regimes typically end up warmer than guidance so tried to hold
on to some persistence. By late tomorrow morning the trough
starts to enter the western part of the CWA then move through
the rest of the area in the afternoon. Large-scale dynamics and
a cold front will provide plenty of lift for precipitation.
Steep lapse rates look to support modest instability and a
fairly uncapped environment. So expect widespread showers and
even some thunderstorms through most of the afternoon. Snow
levels initially start around 8-9 kft and the high late April
sun angle should limit accumulation on the roadways during the
day. The mositure associated with this system fills in over the
northern Great Basin, so as the trough crosses the Divide flow
becomes WNW which keeps that moisture advecting into our area.
Showers and a few storms will linger as long as the moisture
streams in through the overnight hours with maybe a overall
decrease in coverage. By sunrise Friday morning some of the high
mountain passes could be looking at a few inches of snow.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Friday will see the effects of additional cold air spilling into the
Great Basin and Intermountain West beneath a broad area of cyclonic
flow. A short ripple of ridging will quiet things a touch Friday,
but moisture and orographics will keep showers in the forecast,
especially by afternoon, when moisture supplies pick up for good
into early Sunday morning. Afternoon highs on Friday will be nearly
20 degrees colder across the region following a hot and dry period
this week. Mountain locales can expect accumulating snowfall, mostly
above 9000 feet, where multi day snow totals for the entire weekend
look like they could crest 6-12 inches, including some higher totals
on the bigger peaks. High temperatures in the 40`s will likely chew
into much of the daytime accumulation, as well as impacts on local
roadways. Unsettled weather quiets down late Sunday thanks to high
pressure building in. Monday looks like a return to seasonal normals
with respect to temperature, a short lived stop on the way back to
hot and dry conditions that develop under the amplifying ridge.
Early next week will look familiar to this past week, given model
predictions work out. Spring hasn`t given up on us yet, but each of
these warm ups are squeezing the life out of it slowly.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 546 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Expect mostly VFR conditions across the region through the TAF
period. The exception will be MVFR ceilings possible with
showers after 18Z over the mountain TAF sites. Ceilings below
ILS breakpoints are possible at KASE, KEGE and KRIL after 21Z.
Gusty west to southwest winds will drop off to light terrain
driven winds over the next few hours. Look for isolated showers
developing over the higher terrain of eastern Utah after about
10Z, spreading into Western Colorado after 18Z. Showers will
become scattered to widespread through the afternoon with a
isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the mountains.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...DB