Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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859
UXUS97 KGJT 141307
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
707 AM MDT Tuesday, May 14, 2024

This forecast is for Tuesday, May 14, 2024:

If the trigger temperature of 70.1 F/21.2 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 1107 ft/min (5.6 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 17182 ft MSL (12349 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 80.0 F/27.1 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 0945 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1800 MDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 13833 ft MSL (9000 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Wednesday 05/15.... Excellent

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:01:09 / 20:19:50 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 18 min 41 sec (858 min 41 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:10:30 MDT... 69.64 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 05/14/2024 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 12418 ft MSL (7585 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 14629 ft MSL (9796 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 15850 ft MSL (11018 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -2.6
K index......................... +23.5

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -56.1 -69.0   230   26   13   2.8   1.5  105.5 221.9    45.2      M    M
 45000  -52.8 -63.0   220   25   13   3.7   2.0   86.2 187.2    36.5      M    M
 40000  -57.6 -71.7   265   28   14  -9.2  -5.0   55.5 131.9    18.9      M    M
 38000  -58.1 -72.6   270   34   18   4.6   2.5   45.9 114.6    13.0      M    M
 36000  -54.5 -66.1   260   38   20   8.1   4.4   41.4 106.6    10.3      M    M
 34000  -49.9 -57.8   260   37   19   7.6   4.1   39.8 103.7     9.4      M    M
 32000  -45.3 -49.5   255   34   17   7.6   4.1   38.0 100.5     8.3      M    M
 30000  -40.7 -41.3   255   31   16   7.5   4.1   36.3  97.3     7.2      M    M
 29000  -38.5 -37.3   250   27   14   7.5   4.1   35.4  95.7     6.6      M    M
 28000  -36.3 -33.3   255   27   14   8.1   4.5   34.5  94.1     6.0      M    M
 27000  -33.7 -28.7   270   30   15   8.1   4.4   33.9  93.1     5.6      M    M
 26000  -31.5 -24.7   275   28   14   7.3   4.0   33.0  91.5     5.0      M    M
 25000  -29.3 -20.7   280   28   15   8.7   4.8   32.2  90.0     4.4      M    M
 24000  -26.7 -16.1   280   27   14   9.4   5.1   31.8  89.2     4.0      M    M
 23000  -24.0 -11.2   280   30   15   8.7   4.8   31.5  88.7     3.8      M    M
 22000  -21.7  -7.1   265   25   13   6.3   3.5   30.8  87.4     3.2      M    M
 21000  -19.9  -3.8   260   33   17   6.4   3.5   29.6  85.2     2.2      M    M
 20000  -17.7   0.1   265   31   16   7.9   4.3   28.7  83.6     1.5      M    M
 19500  -15.9   3.4   270   30   15   7.9   4.3   28.2  82.7     1.1      M    M
 19000  -14.7   5.5   265   29   15   8.3   4.5   27.8  82.1     0.8      M    M
 18500  -13.4   7.9   265   31   16   8.7   4.8   27.7  81.8     0.6      M    M
 18000  -12.1  10.2   260   29   15   8.3   4.5   27.5  81.5     0.5      M    M
 17500  -11.0  12.2   255   25   13   7.8   4.3   27.1  80.9     0.1      M    M
 17000   -9.9  14.2   250   22   11   7.8   4.3   26.8  80.3    -0.2   1080  5.5
 16500   -8.7  16.3   250   21   11   7.8   4.3   26.5  79.7    -0.5   1031  5.2
 16000   -7.7  18.1   260   22   11   5.2   2.9   26.0  78.8    -1.0    987  5.0
 15500   -7.1  19.2   270   20   10   4.8   2.6   25.1  77.3    -1.8    952  4.8
 15000   -6.3  20.7   275   19   10   7.3   4.0   24.4  76.0    -2.5    914  4.6
 14500   -5.1  22.8   280   19   10   8.2   4.5   24.2  75.6    -2.7    862  4.4
 14000   -3.8  25.2   265   20   10   8.3   4.6   24.0  75.2    -2.9    811  4.1
 13500   -2.6  27.3   270   18    9   8.3   4.6   23.8  74.8    -3.2    759  3.9
 13000   -1.4  29.5   280   15    8   8.3   4.6   23.6  74.4    -3.4    707  3.6
 12500   -0.1  31.8   275   17    9   8.3   4.6   23.3  74.0    -3.7    656  3.3
 12000    1.1  34.0   290   17    9   8.3   4.6   23.1  73.6    -3.9    604  3.1
 11500    2.3  36.1   300   15    8   8.3   4.6   22.8  73.1    -4.2    552  2.8
 11000    3.5  38.3   315   14    7   8.3   4.6   22.6  72.7    -4.5    500  2.5
 10500    4.8  40.6   315   14    7   8.3   4.5   22.3  72.2    -4.7    449  2.3
 10250    5.4  41.7   310   12    6   8.5   4.7   22.2  72.0    -4.9    423  2.1
 10000    6.0  42.8   310   13    7   8.9   4.9   22.1  71.9    -5.0    396  2.0
  9750    6.7  44.1   305   14    7   9.0   4.9   22.1  71.8    -5.0    368  1.9
  9500    7.4  45.3   295   14    7   9.0   4.9   22.0  71.7    -5.1    341  1.7
  9250    8.0  46.4   305   12    6   9.0   4.9   22.0  71.6    -5.2    314  1.6
  9000    8.7  47.7   320   11    5   9.0   4.9   21.9  71.5    -5.2    286  1.5
  8750    9.4  48.9   315   12    6   9.0   4.9   21.9  71.4    -5.3    259  1.3
  8500   10.0  50.0   295   13    7   9.0   4.9   21.8  71.3    -5.4    231  1.2
  8250   10.7  51.3   305   11    6   9.0   4.9   21.8  71.2    -5.4    204  1.0
  8000   11.4  52.5   320    9    5   9.0   4.9   21.7  71.1    -5.5    177  0.9
  7750   12.1  53.8   330   10    5   9.0   4.9   21.7  71.0    -5.6    149  0.8
  7500   12.7  54.9   345    8    4   9.0   4.9   21.6  70.9    -5.7    122  0.6
  7250   13.4  56.1   005    8    4   9.0   4.9   21.5  70.8    -5.8     94  0.5
  7000   14.1  57.4   345    9    4   9.0   4.9   21.5  70.7    -5.8     67  0.3
  6750   14.7  58.5   340    8    4   9.0   4.9   21.4  70.5    -5.9     39  0.2
  6500   15.4  59.7   330    7    4   9.0   4.9   21.3  70.4    -6.0     12  0.1
  6250   16.1  61.0   315    7    4   9.1   5.0   21.3  70.3    -6.1      M    M
  6000   16.7  62.1   305    7    4   6.0   3.3   21.1  70.1    -6.3      M    M
  5750   17.0  62.6   310    4    2   4.9   2.7   20.7  69.3    -6.7      M    M
  5500   17.3  63.1   050    1    1   1.5   0.8   20.4  68.6    -7.2      M    M
  5250   17.1  62.8   105    2    1  -1.5  -0.8   19.5  67.1    -8.0      M    M
  5000   17.2  63.0   165    5    2   3.3   1.8   18.9  65.9    -8.7      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           05/14/2024 at 0900 MDT          |       05/14/2024 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
CAPE...    +8.4    LI...       -0.6        | CAPE...  +226.1    LI...       -1.5
CINH...   -31.9    K Index... +25.0        | CINH...   -14.7    K Index... +27.0
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -56.0 -68.8  240  20 10   1.4   0.8 | -55.3 -67.5  250  18  9   1.8   1.0
 45000 -54.3 -65.7  225  17  9  -2.4  -1.3 | -53.1 -63.6  240  19 10  -3.7  -2.0
 40000 -57.7 -71.9  255  28 14  -2.3  -1.3 | -58.1 -72.6  250  30 15  -3.4  -1.9
 38000 -56.2 -69.2  255  31 16   4.4   2.4 | -56.7 -70.1  245  33 17   4.9   2.7
 36000 -53.5 -64.3  250  33 17   4.4   2.4 | -53.7 -64.7  245  35 18   4.9   2.7
 34000 -50.2 -58.4  250  34 17   7.1   3.9 | -50.3 -58.5  245  36 18   7.0   3.9
 32000 -46.0 -50.8  255  32 17   7.1   3.9 | -46.1 -51.0  245  33 17   7.0   3.8
 30000 -41.5 -42.7  255  31 16   7.9   4.4 | -41.7 -43.1  250  30 16   7.6   4.2
 29000 -39.1 -38.4  255  30 16   7.9   4.4 | -39.4 -38.9  255  29 15   7.6   4.2
 28000 -36.7 -34.1  260  30 15   8.0   4.4 | -37.2 -35.0  255  29 15   7.6   4.2
 27000 -34.4 -29.9  260  29 15   8.0   4.4 | -34.9 -30.8  260  28 14   8.2   4.5
 26000 -32.0 -25.6  265  27 14   8.0   4.4 | -32.4 -26.3  265  27 14   8.1   4.4
 25000 -29.6 -21.3  265  26 13   8.0   4.4 | -30.0 -22.0  265  26 13   8.1   4.5
 24000 -27.2 -17.0  270  25 13   7.6   4.2 | -27.0 -16.6  270  25 13   7.8   4.3
 23000 -24.4 -11.9  270  25 13   7.6   4.1 | -24.7 -12.5  270  25 13   7.9   4.3
 22000 -22.2  -8.0  275  25 13   7.6   4.2 | -22.3  -8.1  270  24 12   7.8   4.3
 21000 -20.0  -4.0  275  25 13   7.4   4.0 | -20.1  -4.2  270  24 12   7.2   3.9
 20000 -17.8  -0.0  275  25 13   7.4   4.1 | -18.0  -0.4  270  24 12   7.2   4.0
 19500 -16.7   1.9  275  25 13   7.4   4.1 | -17.0   1.4  270  23 12   7.2   4.0
 19000 -15.7   3.7  275  25 13   7.6   4.2 | -15.9   3.4  270  23 12   7.5   4.1
 18500 -14.5   5.9  275  25 13   8.2   4.5 | -14.7   5.5  270  23 12   8.4   4.6
 18000 -13.3   8.1  275  25 13   8.2   4.5 | -13.5   7.7  270  23 12   8.4   4.6
 17500 -12.1  10.2  275  24 12   8.2   4.5 | -12.3   9.9  270  23 12   8.5   4.7
 17000 -10.9  12.4  275  24 12   8.3   4.5 | -11.1  12.0  270  22 11   8.5   4.7
 16500  -9.7  14.5  275  23 12   8.2   4.5 |  -9.8  14.4  270  22 11   8.6   4.7
 16000  -8.5  16.7  280  22 11   8.2   4.5 |  -8.6  16.5  270  21 11   8.7   4.8
 15500  -7.3  18.9  280  21 11   8.2   4.5 |  -7.3  18.9  270  20 10   8.7   4.8
 15000  -6.1  21.0  280  20 10   8.1   4.4 |  -6.0  21.2  270  19 10   8.4   4.6
 14500  -4.9  23.2  280  19 10   8.1   4.5 |  -4.8  23.4  270  18  9   8.5   4.6
 14000  -3.7  25.3  280  18  9   8.0   4.4 |  -3.6  25.5  270  17  9   8.4   4.6
 13500  -2.5  27.5  280  17  9   8.0   4.4 |  -2.3  27.9  270  16  8   8.4   4.6
 13000  -1.3  29.7  280  16  8   8.7   4.8 |  -1.1  30.0  270  15  8   8.8   4.8
 12500  -0.0  32.0  280  14  7   8.8   4.8 |   0.3  32.5  270  14  7   8.9   4.9
 12000   1.3  34.3  285  13  7   8.9   4.9 |   1.6  34.9  275  13  7   9.1   5.0
 11500   2.6  36.7  280  12  6   8.9   4.9 |   3.0  37.4  275  12  6   9.2   5.1
 11000   3.9  39.0  280  11  6   8.1   4.4 |   4.3  39.7  275  12  6   8.4   4.6
 10500   5.1  41.2  280  10  5   6.9   3.8 |   5.5  41.9  280  11  6   6.9   3.8
 10250   5.7  42.3  280   9  5  10.6   5.8 |   6.1  43.0  280  11  6  11.6   6.4
 10000   6.6  43.9  280   9  5  11.1   6.1 |   7.1  44.8  280  11  5  12.5   6.8
  9750   7.2  45.0  280   9  5   7.6   4.2 |   7.8  46.0  280  10  5   8.2   4.5
  9500   7.9  46.2  280   9  5   8.7   4.8 |   8.5  47.3  280  10  5   9.8   5.4
  9250   8.5  47.3  280   8  4   7.8   4.3 |   9.2  48.6  280  10  5   7.6   4.2
  9000   9.1  48.4  280   8  4   7.7   4.2 |   9.7  49.5  285  10  5   8.2   4.5
  8750   9.7  49.5  280   8  4   8.1   4.4 |  11.2  52.2  285   9  5  10.0   5.5
  8500  10.9  51.6  275   6  3   7.3   4.0 |  11.9  53.4  285   8  4   8.9   4.9
  8250  11.4  52.5  275   6  3   6.1   3.3 |  12.5  54.5  285   8  4   8.4   4.6
  8000  11.8  53.2  275   5  3   6.3   3.4 |  13.2  55.8  285   8  4  10.0   5.5
  7750  12.3  54.1  270   4  2   6.9   3.8 |  14.0  57.2  285   8  4  10.7   5.9
  7500  12.8  55.0  255   3  2   5.1   2.8 |  14.7  58.5  285   7  4   9.2   5.0
  7250  13.0  55.4  255   2  1   3.6   2.0 |  15.4  59.7  290   7  4   8.1   4.4
  7000  13.4  56.1  250   2  1   6.8   3.7 |  16.1  61.0  290   7  4  10.6   5.8
  6750  14.0  57.2  210   1  1   8.5   4.7 |  16.9  62.4  285   7  3  11.8   6.5
  6500  14.5  58.1  175   1  1   8.1   4.5 |  17.7  63.9  285   6  3  10.8   5.9
  6250  15.2  59.4  160   1  1   8.6   4.7 |  18.6  65.5  290   6  3  11.1   6.1
  6000  15.8  60.4  150   2  1   7.6   4.1 |  19.3  66.7  295   6  3   8.4   4.6
  5750  16.4  61.5  150   2  1  11.4   6.2 |  20.0  68.0  285   6  3  13.1   7.2
  5500  18.2  64.8  135   2  1  46.2  25.4 |  22.8  73.0  295   6  3  81.8  44.9
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           05/14/2024 at 1500 MDT          |       05/14/2024 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
CAPE...  +331.9    LI...       -1.4        | CAPE...  +191.4    LI...       -0.5
CINH...   -14.5    K Index... +25.3        | CINH...   -13.3    K Index... +27.8
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -55.5 -67.9  250  18  9   1.1   0.6 | -55.1 -67.2  250  21 11   2.0   1.1
 45000 -54.3 -65.7  250  21 11  -2.7  -1.5 | -52.8 -63.0  260  26 13  -4.1  -2.2
 40000 -58.1 -72.6  240  30 16  -2.2  -1.2 | -58.2 -72.8  255  35 18  -3.7  -2.0
 38000 -56.5 -69.7  240  34 17   4.3   2.4 | -57.0 -70.6  250  37 19   4.6   2.5
 36000 -53.9 -65.0  240  37 19   4.3   2.4 | -54.3 -65.7  245  39 20   4.6   2.5
 34000 -50.6 -59.1  245  37 19   7.4   4.1 | -50.9 -59.6  245  38 20   7.4   4.0
 32000 -46.2 -51.2  245  35 18   7.4   4.1 | -46.5 -51.7  245  33 17   7.4   4.0
 30000 -41.6 -42.9  250  32 16   8.1   4.4 | -41.9 -43.4  255  29 15   8.0   4.4
 29000 -39.1 -38.4  255  31 16   8.1   4.4 | -39.5 -39.1  260  27 14   8.0   4.4
 28000 -36.7 -34.1  255  29 15   8.1   4.5 | -37.1 -34.8  265  26 14   8.0   4.4
 27000 -34.3 -29.7  255  28 15   8.0   4.4 | -34.7 -30.5  270  26 13   8.9   4.9
 26000 -31.9 -25.4  255  28 14   8.0   4.4 | -32.0 -25.6  275  27 14   8.8   4.8
 25000 -29.5 -21.1  260  27 14   8.0   4.4 | -29.4 -20.9  275  27 14   8.8   4.8
 24000 -26.5 -15.7  260  27 14   8.0   4.4 | -26.8 -16.2  275  27 14   8.4   4.6
 23000 -24.2 -11.6  260  27 14   8.0   4.4 | -23.7 -10.7  280  26 13   8.3   4.5
 22000 -21.8  -7.2  255  26 14   8.0   4.4 | -21.3  -6.3  280  25 13   8.3   4.5
 21000 -19.5  -3.1  255  26 13   7.6   4.2 | -18.9  -2.0  280  24 13   7.6   4.2
 20000 -17.2   1.0  260  26 13   7.7   4.2 | -16.7   1.9  280  23 12   7.6   4.2
 19500 -16.1   3.0  260  26 13   7.7   4.2 | -15.6   3.9  285  23 12   7.7   4.2
 19000 -15.0   5.0  260  25 13   7.7   4.2 | -14.4   6.1  285  22 11   7.7   4.2
 18500 -13.8   7.2  260  25 13   7.8   4.3 | -13.3   8.1  285  22 11   7.6   4.2
 18000 -12.7   9.1  260  24 13   7.8   4.3 | -12.2  10.0  285  21 11   7.6   4.2
 17500 -11.5  11.3  260  24 12   8.1   4.4 | -11.1  12.0  290  20 11   7.2   4.0
 17000 -10.4  13.3  260  23 12   8.2   4.5 | -10.1  13.8  290  20 10   7.1   3.9
 16500  -9.2  15.4  260  22 11   8.3   4.5 |  -9.1  15.6  290  19 10   7.2   3.9
 16000  -7.9  17.8  260  21 11   8.5   4.7 |  -8.0  17.6  290  18  9   7.2   4.0
 15500  -6.7  19.9  260  21 11   8.5   4.7 |  -6.9  19.6  290  18  9   7.1   3.9
 15000  -5.4  22.3  265  20 10   8.8   4.8 |  -5.8  21.6  290  17  9   8.3   4.6
 14500  -4.1  24.6  265  19 10   8.7   4.8 |  -4.6  23.7  290  17  8   8.2   4.5
 14000  -2.8  27.0  265  18 10   9.0   4.9 |  -3.4  25.9  290  16  8   8.6   4.7
 13500  -1.5  29.3  270  18  9   9.0   4.9 |  -2.1  28.2  285  16  8   8.6   4.7
 13000  -0.1  31.8  270  17  9   9.2   5.0 |  -0.8  30.6  285  15  8   8.9   4.9
 12500   1.2  34.2  275  17  9   9.2   5.1 |   0.6  33.1  285  15  8   9.1   5.0
 12000   2.6  36.7  275  16  8   9.1   5.0 |   1.9  35.4  285  15  8   9.0   5.0
 11500   3.9  39.0  280  15  8   8.9   4.9 |   3.2  37.8  280  15  8   9.0   4.9
 11000   5.2  41.4  280  15  8   8.4   4.6 |   4.6  40.3  280  14  7   8.2   4.5
 10500   6.4  43.5  280  15  8   7.3   4.0 |   5.7  42.3  285  14  7   6.5   3.6
 10250   7.0  44.6  280  15  8  10.8   5.9 |   6.2  43.2  285  13  7  11.3   6.2
 10000   8.0  46.4  285  14  7  11.6   6.4 |   7.2  45.0  280  14  7  11.6   6.4
  9750   8.6  47.5  285  14  7   8.7   4.8 |   7.8  46.0  280  13  7   7.3   4.0
  9500   9.3  48.7  285  14  7   9.4   5.2 |   8.4  47.1  285  13  7   8.1   4.4
  9250  10.0  50.0  285  14  7   9.3   5.1 |   9.0  48.2  285  12  6   9.2   5.0
  9000  10.7  51.3  290  14  7   9.4   5.2 |   9.8  49.6  280  12  6   9.7   5.3
  8750  12.1  53.8  295  14  7   9.2   5.1 |  10.4  50.7  280  12  6   8.4   4.6
  8500  12.8  55.0  295  14  7   9.6   5.3 |  11.1  52.0  280  11  6   8.9   4.9
  8250  13.5  56.3  295  14  7   9.8   5.4 |  12.3  54.1  285  11  6   8.2   4.5
  8000  14.2  57.6  300  14  7   9.2   5.1 |  13.0  55.4  290  10  5   8.7   4.8
  7750  14.9  58.8  300  14  7   9.2   5.0 |  13.6  56.5  285   9  5   9.2   5.0
  7500  15.6  60.1  305  13  7   9.0   4.9 |  14.3  57.7  285   9  4   8.0   4.4
  7250  16.2  61.2  305  14  7   8.8   4.8 |  14.8  58.6  290   9  4   6.7   3.7
  7000  16.9  62.4  305  14  7   9.1   5.0 |  15.4  59.7  295   9  4   8.8   4.8
  6750  17.6  63.7  310  13  7   9.1   5.0 |  16.1  61.0  290   8  4  10.2   5.6
  6500  18.3  64.9  310  13  7  10.8   5.9 |  16.8  62.2  285   7  3   9.7   5.3
  6250  19.2  66.6  310  13  7  13.5   7.4 |  17.6  63.7  295   7  4  10.1   5.5
  6000  20.1  68.2  315  13  7   7.7   4.2 |  18.3  64.9  300   7  4   8.0   4.4
  5750  20.5  68.9  310  12  6  10.0   5.5 |  18.8  65.8  290   6  3   9.0   4.9
  5500  23.5  74.3  315  12  6  94.4  51.8 |  20.5  68.9  305   5  3  46.2  25.3
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 00.001 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 31 min 59.998 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Western Slope of
Colorado.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models
differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear
to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613