Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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259 FXUS63 KGLD 091949 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 149 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light showers are possible today for Eastern Colorado. Greater precipitation chances are forecast for Sat/Sun. Widespread precipitation is possible, especially along and south of Interstate 70. - Severe weather potential may return by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 122 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024 Through most of the short-term, a 500 mb low pressure system will be stalled out over the Great Basin. This will send out some weak shortwaves across the Great Plains that will create enough forcing to start some precipitation, but not enough for anything organized or severe. Precipitation is possible this evening and tomorrow evening, but PoPs remain around and under 25 and in the far western CWA. Kansas and Nebraska will likely (70% confidence) not see any measurable precipitation in the next 48 hours. There is a slight chance (~15-20%) chance that patchy fog could form across the CWA tonight, around 12Z. The limiting factors will be northerly winds, currently forecast to be around 5-10 kts, and the potential for upper-level clouds. Saturday afternoon and into the overnight hours look to be a different story as the low pressure system starts moving to the east. This will provide enough forcing for some more organized precipitation, including a few thunderstorms. The threat for severe weather is low, but not 0. CAPE looks to be limited to around 1,000 J/KG and effective shear is about 15-20 kts or less. This could lead to some pop-up storms that are quickly lived. A warming trend is expected through the period, with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s on Saturday. Low temperatures will follow a similar trend, but generally remain in the 40s throughout the area. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 146 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024 A continued active pattern continues to remain forecasted for the Tri-State area for the extended period. 500mb troughing a surface low looks to be across or within the vicinity of the region. Rainfall chances currently are forecasted to be in the in the 50-60% chance of occurring with the most likely time frame to be during the afternoon hours. GFS forecast soundings do show over 1100 j/kg of MUCAPE but with 0-6 shear less than 15 knots the severe threat doesn`t look promising other than perhaps some isolated instances of hail. GFS forecast soundings do also have the freezing level down around 10,000` as with PWAT values of 0.8 to one inch makes me wonder if storms producing large amounts of small hail (accumulating hail/SPLASH) may be in play. With the weak wind shear as well severe downbursts/perhaps wet microbursts may be in play as well as soundings do show some dry air aloft which would help entrainment with dissipating storms. Monday; as the low departs some lingering showers and storms may remain possible as moisture remains in place. The main focus then turns to Tuesday. Mid level ridging looks to be in place during the day but will quickly be followed by an advancing shortwave. Am watching this day for the next potential severe weather day for the area. PWATS do look to be above an inch with falls into the 90th percentile climatology for the area. A feature to keep an eye on will be a surface low across the Mid Ohio Valley which will continue to feed moisture into the area from the east. Currently, convection may grow more upscale the further east it moves in the area. The additional moisture advection from the east may lead into back building of the potential MCS which would lead to a very heavy rain potential. Continues to not look like a big hydrology event but some instances of flash flooding may occur especially if any training does occur. Wednesday, a cold front pushes through the area bringing showers and storms again to the area. Do have some concern of lingering cloud cover from the previous day keeping temperatures cooler and impacting any instability for thunderstorm potential. Overall I did lower high temperatures a few degrees to account for this scenario. The one thing to remember for the potential events Tuesday and Wednesday is that they are still 5-6 days out and a lot will change in the coming days so continue to stay tuned for the most up to date forecast. Temperatures for the period will be dependent on coverage on precipitation/clouds from the previous day so I did opt to lower them some what especially the days where overnight rainfall looks "more likely". Temperatures for the period are currently forecast mainly in the upper 60s to mid 70s for highs with the warmest day currently appearing to be Tuesday where some low 80s are forecasted under the the mid level ridge in place. Lows continue to remain forecasted near seasonal in the 40s to 50s. May need to watch Thursday morning for cooler temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s in wake of the cold front on Wednesday, but am not anticipating any frost/freeze concerns at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1205 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024 VFR to borderline MVFR conditions are expected for KGLD and KMCK. Low level CU has formed over the region and are occasionally dropping to below 3,000 ft AGL. As the day goes on, these cloud bases are expected to rise, and by around 19-20Z confidence is low that MVFR conditions will return. Winds will generally be from the northwest with occasional gusts up to about 20 KTS until 21Z. After that, winds will slowing weaken. There is about a 25% chance that patchy fog may form for an hour or two around 12Z tomorrow morning. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...Trigg AVIATION...CA