844
FNUS73 KGRR 060840
FWSGRR

Spot Forecast for Southeast Peacock Unit 7...USFS
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
440 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on May 06.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (616) 949-5150, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure over the area early this morning will slowly drift to
the east today. This will allow winds to become more from the SE and
increase slightly this afternoon. Only thin high clouds are expected
this morning, then will clear out this afternoon. Rain is expected to
develop over the area Tuesday afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (10-20 percent).
Temperature.........42 at ignition...Max 73.
RH..................93 percent at ignition...Min 27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds light at ignition...otherwise Southeast
                    winds 6 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 7000 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southeast 10 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....10 /poor/ at ignition. Max...1000 /excellent/.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (EDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........30     18     13     8      5      4
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............42     51     62     67     71     73
RH..............93     68     48     40     30     27
20 ft wind......Light  SE 5   SE 8   SE 8   SE 8   SE 9
20 ft wind gust. 5     10     10     12     12     14
Mix hgt (ft)....100    1300   4000   5500   6500   7000
Mixing wind.....E 5    SE 10  SE 10  SE 12  SE 13  SE 14
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      5
Smoke disprsl...10     130    400    580    840    980

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Temperature.........Min 45.
RH..................Max 80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 7 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........East 10 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Decreasing to 50 (poor) late in the night.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers
                    through mid afternoon. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon. Rain showers
                    likely late in the day.
Temperature.........Max 71.
RH..................Min 42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 12 to 16 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southeast 20 to 25 mph shifting to the south
                    around 20 mph in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....100 (poor) early in the morning increasing to
                    950 (excellent) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Jeruzal
Requested by...Nieland
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413211.0/GRR
.DELDT 05/06/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Jeff.Nieland@usda.gov