Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 221109
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
609 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Though not fully out of the area early this morning, the worst of
of this event`s storms have moved out of the area, and fair
weather will gradually come to reign for the weekend. Some of the
key points for the forecast:

- The San Bernard River has responded to the rains, pushing river
  levels at the gage for Boling into Moderate Flood. A flood
  warning is in effect there, and at Sweeny, which has not yet
  reached flood stage, but is expected to later this morning.
- Fair weather and drier air will help us start to dry out this
  weekend, with warm days and cool nights expected.
- The next opportunity for showers and thunderstorms will be
  Monday with our next cold front. There is some potential for
  stronger storms, primarily for folks around Lake Livingston and
  up towards the Piney Woods.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

The strongest of the night`s squall has pushed east of us on its
way to Southwest Louisiana, but that doesn`t mean the event is
entirely over for us. There are some remnant showers and storms
over the Gulf of Mexico, though those are weakening and the
special marine warning that had been in effect has been allowed to
expire. Up in our northeast corner, beyond Lake Livingston towards
the Piney Woods, there is a swath of remnant showers with a few
occasional lightning strikes also still occurring. While those
particular showers are expected to break up/move off through mid-
morning, we`ll continue to have cyclonic flow and wraparound
moisture will continue a low chance of showers to this same area
around and north of Lake Livingston this afternoon. Slight chances
of showers may even extend as far south/westward as Huntsville and
Conroe, though that would really be pushing it.

For the rest of the area, we begin to focus on life in this new
airmass. Down in the Matagorda Bay area, this means fog - dense on
the bay itself, but not is not expected to quite reach the
more severe advisory threshold on land. It is close, however, so a
short fuse advisory may be needed for a few hours this morning if
the fog comes in any worse than anticipated. Elsewhere across the
area, low stratus will expand across Southeast Texas for much of
the morning, before lifting and scattering for a sunnier
afternoon. There`ll be lots of puddles to evaporate and not a full
day of sun, but we should still manage to warm up fairly well,
with most of the area reaching into the mid-70s. The main
exception is up in the northeast where clouds/rain(?) will hold
things down in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.

This incoming airmass will be modestly drier as well, which will
allow nighttime lows to drop to a chillier level - most all of the
area can expect things to fall into the 50s for the next couple of
nights. This isn`t a real severe chill - it`s really only around
seasonal averages. In between those nights, Saturday looks like
another fair weather, mostly sunny day with temps in the 70s. Some
isolated hot spots could try to crack 80 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Sunday is the day all of the ridging, surface and aloft, has made
its way east of us, and we begin the new cycle towards the next
cold front. Low level flow becomes southeasterly to southerly, and
moisture return begins in earnest. Little blobs of vorticity
ejected ahead of the next upper trough look to pass overhead, and
that should mean more clouds. Despite that, the infusion of warmer
air will keep the clouds from tempering things too much, and I`ve
got highs still mainly in the 70s across the area, with higher
humidity keeping Sunday night lows up in the 60s.

Monday brings an end to the stretch of nice weather, as nothing
really ever stays around for too long in the spring transition
season. Things look more or less the same as yesterday, so a lot
of what I wrote back then still applies. Still expecting a bit of
a bifurcated disturbance running through the wave pattern, so the
lead impulse associated with the incoming upper trough will induce
lee cyclogenesis over the Central Plains, and by Monday afternoon
should be over Iowa. This divorces us from a lot of supportive
features for rain and thunderstorms, though we should at least
have ample moisture. In situations like this, we tend to see a
threat area for strong/severe storms where there`s enough of an
overlap of moisture return and upper dynamic support, an area that
usually happens to our northeast. That looks to be happening again
here, so while there is some potential for stronger storms,
particularly up on our northeast border towards the Piney Woods.
Folks there should definitely continue to monitor the forecast
trends, as small changes in the forecast may introduce a more
significant threat for severe weather to our northeast, and if
enough of a shift, would even start to draw in the Houston metro
and I-45 corridor.

Even though the initial focus for Monday is on the afternoon and
the lead impulse/cold front combo, things aren`t totally over
Monday night. By this time, the trailing impulse makes its way
into our area, and actually probably gives us the best upper
support for lift. Fortunately, by this point we should be solidly
in a post-frontal airmass, which would limit us mostly to elevated
showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm here or there. To cover
this potential, I`ve got chance PoPs (25-54 percent) east of I-45,
and slight chance (15-24 percent) west of it.

Tuesday onward should give us mostly a return to fair weather,
though there are some quirks we`ll need to watch out for. Tuesday
particularly, and perhaps even Wednesday will be a bit cooler for
highs - upper 60s and lower 70s. More interesting is that another
vort max slides into the upper trough over us, and will at least
give us a shot for a few more clouds in the sky Wednesday. Some
guidance does push some light rain, but I`m not yet buying it. My
PoPs are greater than zero, but still below 15 percent. Thursday
will see the troughing finally move off, and we should warm up
nicely with ridging building into place. I`ve got highs in the
upper 70s to around 80 across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Expected low CIGs and fog have been coming in very spotty this
morning, making it difficult to keep a clean TAF. Approach this
cycle is to hew to a pessimistic end, anticipating that we`ll have
a few hours of more concrete dips in CIG and/or VSBY. By mid-day,
anticipating significant improvement at all sites, and some
reaching VFR already. The rest of the sites should follow shortly
in the early afternoon. While sustained winds not expected to be
all that strong, do have gustiness in this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Strong thunderstorms are currently pushing off the coast over the
nearshore Gulf waters off Galveston Bay early this morning. Those
will persist for the next few hours, gradually weakening as they
do so before dissipating entirely. Farther down the coast, dense
fog has developed around Matagorda Bay and its adjacent Gulf
waters for the morning hours. Deeper into the morning, light to
moderate offshore winds will develop, persisting through Saturday
night. Winds return to being onshore late Saturday night, then
strengthening on Sunday. Small craft will likely need to exercise
caution on much of the waters that day, and a small craft advisory
may be needed farther offshore.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Two flood warnings are currently in effect, both on the San
Bernard River.

The gage at Boling is currently in moderate flood stage, at a
level of 22.2 feet. It is expected to crest later this morning at
22.4 feet, and expected to fall below flood stage Saturday
morning.

At Sweeny, the river gage is currently at 6.1 feet, below the
flood stage of 7 feet. It is expected to continue to rise today,
reaching flood stage later this morning and cresting this
evening at 9.3 feet. It is then forecast to fall back below flood
stage Saturday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

A soggy day made for a couple new rainfall records around Houston
today. Both the City of Houston record at IAH and the Houston
Hobby record rainfall amounts for March 21 fell.

For the City of Houston, the 1.63 inches of rain that were
recorded before 0100 CDT/0600 UTC broke the old record of 1.38
inches, which dates back all the way to 1893!

At Hobby airport, the recorded 1.97 inches of rain also broke
the day`s record, which had been 1.59 inches. This broken record
was not as august, as it was only set in 2015.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  73  53  74  56 /  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  76  55  79  57 /  10  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  75  59  73  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-350.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
     for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs


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