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000
FXUS66 KHNX 111954
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1254 PM PDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Warmer than average temperatures continue until Friday, with
high temperatures reaching 10 to 20 degrees above normal.

2. Another disturbance moves through Central California late
Friday through the weekend that will result in cooler
temperatures and a chance for precipitation.

3. Strong thunderstorms may develop Saturday afternoon and
evening.

4. Strong wind potential occurs mainly in the afternoons and
evenings on Friday and Saturday in eastern Kern County,
including the desert floor and slopes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Much warmer than average temperatures continue this afternoon
and again on Friday. Today’s highs will top 85 degrees in many
locations in the San Joaquin Valley, as well as into the Kern
County desert. Latest probabilities for these highs remain at 60
to 90 percent. Showers and thunderstorms have a slight chance
(around 20 percent) to develop this afternoon/evening and Friday
afternoon/evening, with at least some cumulus buildups. The
best chance (up to 30 percent) for thunderstorm activity will be
on Saturday, due to the approaching storm system that arrives
late Friday evening. Winds will increase in at least the typical
prone areas of eastern Kern County by Friday evening, although
gusts of 45 mph become more widespread on Saturday, based on the
latest probabilistic data from the ensemble guidance. The
chances are greater for advisory criteria on Saturday (or 45 mph
gusts with a 50 to around 90 percent chance), rather than
Friday (isolated probabilities to 40 percent). There is
potential for a brief period of gusty southerly winds on Friday
night/early Saturday morning towards western Kern County and
the Grapevine, though confidence is lower.

On Saturday, shower and thunderstorm activity will increase in
coverage as a cold, unstable airmass arrives by late Saturday
morning into the afternoon. Snow levels in the Sierra Nevada
will be generally above 7,000 feet on Friday night and lower to
around 6,000 feet by Saturday morning. Even lower snow levels,
or as low as 4,500 feet, occur by Saturday evening, though will
be mainly after the bulk of the precipitation. Have issued a
Winter Weather Advisory for the Sierra Nevada to account for
forecast snow amounts and gusty winds along the crest for
Saturday afternoon and evening. It appears much of the
precipitation in Kern County will fall as rain, as the snow
levels lower to around 6,000 feet slightly later in the day, but
light snow can be expected by Saturday afternoon. However, snow will
be above pass level throughout Kern County for most of Saturday.
Although, up to a 20 percent chance of a dusting of snow in
Tehachapi begins Saturday evening and lasts until late Sunday.
As for the Grapevine along I-5, we`re seeing an even lesser
chance (or 10 percent at best) for a dusting of snow on the
pass; will continue to monitor as the forecast evolves. Cool and
unsettled conditions, including lingering showers, continue
into Sunday, although with lesser amounts than on Saturday.

Below average temperatures prevail this weekend into early next
week, but will trend towards seasonal averages by the middle of
next week.

&&


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected across interior Central California
for at least the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday for
CAZ323-325>331.
&&

$$

Public/Aviation/Fire Wx...BSO
IDSS......................SM

weather.gov/hanford