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000
FXUS64 KHUN 110458
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1158 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 920 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

A mid/upper trough will pivot NE from the ArkLaMiss into the Mid
South late tonight, with a threat for gusty/strong winds
continuing into the morning hours on Thursday. While some partial
clearing has occurred over the past couple of hours, satellite
indicates the low clouds will quickly push back in, making for
overcast conditions for the remainder of the night. Of greatest
concern may be the higher terrain of the Cumberland Plateau where
localized gusts up to 40-50 mph during the late tonight/early
Thursday morning hours. After a brief lull in the rainfall this
evening, radar trends show numerous showers redeveloping across
central/northern Mississippi that will push into the TN Valley
overnight. Model soundings indicate some modest elevated
instability which may allow for a few elevated storms -- with the
main threats being occasional lightning and brief downpours. Only
minor tweaks made to the forecast based on the latest obs/trends
as everything remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

An upper low is forecast to linger behind the front on Thursday
morning. Though the convection and heavier rainfall will have
moved well northeast of the area, lingering light showers and
cloud cover will persist through the day. Based on weak cold air
advection expected, persistent light rainfall and cloud cover,
included lower high temperatures in the forecast than most
guidance. Highs will likely be hard pressed to reach the lower 60s
in most locations. These light showers should last into the early
evening hours before exiting the area.

On Friday with weaker northwest flow continuing, highs should
remain below normal, but climb into the 65 to 70 degree range with
abundant sunshine. Friday night will likely be our coolest night
with winds being the lightest overnight. Lows should drop into the
lower to mid 40s primarily.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

For those who are tired of the rain, the long term forecast will be a
relief to read. High pressure continues to influence the Tennessee
Valley through the start of the work week, allowing dry weather to
remain in place. During this time, highs are forecast to reach the
upper 70s to low 80s with overnight lows in the 50s to 60s. Monday
night, low rain chances (20% or less) return to the forecast ahead
of an upper level trough forecast to form in the Plains and the
aforementioned sfc high pressure continues eastward off the coast of
the Carolinas. There is model disagreement on the evolution of this
trough axis, therefore, continued with blended model guidance for
PoPs at this time. This keeps low rain chances in portions of
northwest AL and southern middle Tennessee through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Ceilings will continue to lower to MVFR to localized IFR
conditions overnight as -SHRA approach and overspread the area
ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure. Winds will become
gusty out of the south early this morning and gradually veer to
the SW/WSW later this afternoon as SHRA begin to taper off. Late
in the period, dry air will begin to erode the cloud cover as
winds gradually begin to weaken and a return to VFR conditions is
expected.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT Thursday for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...AMP.24