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000
FXUS63 KICT 212333
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
633 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very strong south winds expected Monday over central and south
central Kansas, wind advisory levels likely to be reached along with
elevated grassland fire danger

- Storm chances will be possible Wednesday/Wednesday night

- Periods of active severe weather could affect the region from
  Thursday-Sunday as rich Gulf of Mexico moisture is
  encountered by a couple strong weather systems

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Quiet weather conditions will be in store for tonight as surface
high pressure slides eastward into Missouri. Satellite water vapor
imagery shows a well defined upper wave now over Alberta, Canada
which will move east across the northern states on Monday and push a
cold front southward into Nebraska. The combination of tightening
surface pressure gradient and deep mixing of low levels should allow
momentum transfer from some of the 40kt 850mb wind maximum down to
the surface over much of central/south central Kansas. As a result
we will hoist a wind advisory for those locations eastward towards
the Flint Hills. We could see a glancing shot for some isolated
elevated shower/storm chances for central Kansas with better chances
further northeast Monday night into Tuesday morning. The cold front
will continue to push southward across Kansas on Tuesday and looks
to stall out over Oklahoma on Wednesday. Models show a decent mid-
level baroclinic zone residing north of the stalled frontal boundary
which looks to become activated from elevated moisture advection
late Tuesday night into Wednesday over Oklahoma. Some of this
activity could spread into southern Kansas Wednesday
afternoon/night.

Looking further west current wide view GOES satellite water vapor
imagery shows a healthy looking upper level system over the Pacific
Ocean between 160W and 150W longitude moving eastward. Models show
this system moving into the southwestern states Wednesday night and
ejecting eastward into the central plains by Thursday night. This
will cause the stalled out frontal boundary in Oklahoma to begin
lifting northward as a warm front Wednesday night, and push north
into Kansas later in the day on Thursday. The low level moisture
quality will continue to enrich as the warm front lifts north for
Thursday night. Thunderstorm chances look to increase especially for
Thursday night, as latest timing from the models shows main upper
level trough and associated upper forcing pushing into the region. A
active pattern could ensue heading into the weekend with another
robust upper wave quickly on the heels of Thursday nights system.
The low level moisture will remain rich adding to higher levels of
instability combined with increasing wind shear from each weather
system will bring increasing severe weather chances to Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR with light winds are expected for the first 12 hours of the
TAF. The only concern for tonight will be at KRSL, KGBD and
KSLN where some LLWS will be setting up. This will start around
the 08Z to 10Z time frame and will continue until around 14Z, at
that time,  mixing will begin. Then it will turn into a low
level turbulence situation as the winds pick up through the day.
The strong winds will affect all terminals in the area. Wind
gusts of 45kts are possible after 16Z tomorrow. KCNU will likely
be the last terminal to get the high winds which should start
around 18Z.



&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM CDT Monday for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...ELM