Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 222001
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
301 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very strong south winds with gusts of 50-60 mph on Sunday.

- Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday
  night through early Monday, with a brief transition to snow
  possible over parts of central Kansas early Monday.

- Some storms on Sunday could be strong or severe with damaging
  winds and large hail.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

A cold front moved through early today bringing gusty north winds in
it`s wake. Breezy northeast winds this evening will gradually
diminish with seasonably cool lows anticipated tonight.

A stable post-frontal regime will be in place across the area
on Saturday with seasonable temperatures anticipated. Afternoon
highs are expected to climb into the upper 50s for most areas. A
subtle shortwave trough may bring an increase in mid clouds
during the afternoon hours with minimal impacts to sensible
weather.

Large-scale forcing for ascent will increase late Saturday night
with increasing chances(60% central KS, 30% south central KS) for
showers and storms as we move into the predawn hours on Sunday.
Multiple rounds of showers and storms (60-80% chance) will be
possible on Sunday as we remain within the warm sector. Very strong
southerly winds are also anticipated and a high wind watch is in
effect for all of central Kansas and portions of south central
Kansas on Sunday. We could see some strong or severe storms on
Sunday and any storms will bring the potential for 50-60 mph wind
gusts given such strong low level flow in place. Steep mid-lvl lapse
rates and some modest elevated CAPE may also bring some potential
for large hail with the stronger storms. A wind advisory will likely
be issued for areas east of the high wind watch that is in effect on
Sunday and perhaps into Sunday night. The dryline will advance
eastward over the area Sunday night bringing an end to measurable
precipitation for most areas. As we move into the morning hours on
Monday we could see a brief transition to wintry weather across
portions of central KS but impactful winter weather is expected to
remain north and west of our forecast area.

Cold air will overspread the area in the wake of the cold front with
highs struggling to climb out of the 30s across portions of central
Kansas while those in far southeast KS see highs in the upper 60s to
near 70. Some low pops were maintained along the I-70 corridor on
Monday night where some light snow or snow flurries could linger.
Much colder air will arrive with lows Tue morning falling into the
teens and 20s in some areas (coldest in our central KS counties).

Mean large-scale troughing over the central CONUS will result in a
continuation of below normal temperatures and dry conditions Tue-Wed
while values begin to moderate as we move through the day on
Wednesday.

Shortwave ridging will build into the central CONUS by Thursday
bringing rising heights/increasing thickness and rising
temperatures. Another shortwave trough is progged to lift into the
Northern Plains on Fri bringing gusty southwest winds and rising
temperatures to the area late in the week. The airmass may remain
capped on Friday given the current track of the shortwave
trough.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Concerns:
1) Strong post frontal winds this afternoon

2) MVFR ceilings

A cold front has made its way quickly through Kansas with strong
north winds behind the front. These winds have been around 20
to 25kts with gusts of 35 to 40kts. It is expected for these
winds to diminish around sunset for all but KCNU given the later
arrival of the front. MVFR ceilings continue to gradually shift
to the southeast near the front and are impacting southeast of
the Kansas Turnpike based on visible satellite. The coverage
should become more scattered in coverage around 0Z for KCNU.
There are some models hinting that the cloud coverage may be
greater than currently forecast given additional moisture
advection which could linger MVFR ceilings longer. Changes may
need to be made in upcoming issuances to account for it. Breezy
conditions are anticipated again on Saturday with speeds of 15
to 20 kts primarily in the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Very strong south winds will develop across the area on Sunday with
wind gusts exceeding 50 mph at times. A very high fire danger may be
offset by high relative humidity and multiple rounds of showers and
storms.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
KSZ032-033-047>051-067-082-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...VJP
FIRE WEATHER...MWM


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