426
FXUS62 KILM 290201
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1001 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Offshore high pressure leads to dry conditions through Monday.
An upper level disturbance will lead to shower and storm chances
Tuesday and Wednesday, a warming trend starting early next week
as the high pushes further offshore. A cold front moves through
late in the week, which brings an increased chance for rain.

&&

.UPDATE...
Skies have cleared out except for the thin cirrus dropping
down on the lee side of the upper ridge. Some of it should
track into the ILM CWA overnight into Mon, again it`s non-
opaque. Winds will also lower if not altogether go calm as
the sea breeze dissipates leaving a rather somewhat relaxed
sfc pg given the sfc ridge axis extending overhead from the
highs center anchoring offshore from the U.S. SE States Coast.
Have continue the fog potential inland with patchy to areas
of fog mainly inland between 4AM and 8AM EDT. Min temps
tweaked lower by a few degrees mainly across the notorious
southernmost ILM SC CWA.

For Mon April 29th...Moderate Rip Risk has been continued
for all county beaches except Brunswick. Slowly decaying but
active E-ESE swell at 8 to 10 second periods continues to
be the primary agitator.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mid level ridging and surface high pressure offshore leads
to basically a persistence forecast. Convective clouds will
dissipate in a few more hours leading to a mostly clear
overnight. Fog is possible again in the wee hours of the
morning more so inland. For Monday although surface dewpoints
are similar to today`s soundings show drier air poised to mix
down thus the cloud forecast is considerably less than todays
observations. Overnight lows will reach the middle 50s with
Mondays highs probably reaching around 80 most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mon night should be mostly clear with cloud cover increasing
towards Tues morning ahead of a shortwave, mostly in the form
of mid/high level clouds early. Offshore high pressure will
shift further from the coast through the day Tues with some
lower clouds associated with isolated showers later in the day.
It looks like a coastal trough forms Wed as the shortwave trough
aloft deepens before nudging offshore by the end of the period.
This will lead to enhanced precip chances Wed with thunder
chances in the afternoon due to some instability. Currently the
area is just in general thunder with ML lapse rates and winds
aloft not supporting much of a wind or hail threat. Sounding
bulk shear values could suggest some storm organization but
otherwise not expecting a severe threat at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The shortwave trough should be offshore Wed night with rain
moving out with it, more surface high pressure approaching due
to a shortwave ridge. It looks like a weak backdoor cold front
may cross over the area Thurs AM but the passage will be dry,
the boundary maybe even becoming diffuse before reaching us. Low
precip chances will be relegated to the afternoon due to a weak
pressure trough inland. Better chances for showers/storms will
come towards the end of the week due to an approaching cold
front and upper level trough. Highs generally in the mid to
upper 80s with cooler conditions towards the end of the week
with the increasing rain chances. Lows generally in the 60s,
again cooler towards the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Will continue with a persistence forecast for the next 24 hrs
as the center of high pressure relocates to offshore from the
U.S. Southeast States Coast. Looking at primarily a VFR forecast
except for a small MVFR window covered by a tempo group for
reduced vsby due to fog for the inland terminals 09z-12z Mon.
Looking at additional Cu development during Mon along with thin
cirrus overriding the upper ridge and dropping down from the
north.

Extended Outlook...Predominately VFR expected through the work
week outside of flight restrictions possible due to fog or low
cigs each morning, especially inland terminals. Isolated
convection possible accompanying a weak mid-level s/w trof
passage Tue night thru Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...Conditions across the coastal waters are all
but in summer time mode. Winds maintain a southerly component
in and around ten knots. Similar persistent story for
significant seas with 2-4 feet.

Monday Night through Friday...Sub-SCA conditions. S/SW winds
10-15 kts become ENE Thur with the passage of a surface
boundary, becoming southerly again Fri. Seas generally 2-3 ft.
Best chances for shower/storms over the waters is Wed with the
passage of a disturbance aloft and low pressure possibly
forming along the coast.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...SHK/LEW