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000
FXUS61 KILN 120520
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
120 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The active weather pattern continues with additional showers and
storms through this evening. Showers persist tonight through
the daylight hours on Friday before drier conditions return for
the start of the weekend. Gusty winds are expected tonight and
Friday, with mild temperatures trending below normal on Friday
before warming up once again for the upcoming weekend. Much
above normal temperatures are expected by early next week with
more rain and storms possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A cold front is now most of the way through the ILN forecast
area. Convergence ahead of the front has led to a final band of
heavy rain setting up parallel to the US-23 corridor, moving
eastward. This should be the last of the threat for heavy rain
in the ILN forecast area tonight, so it is expected that the
flood watch will be able to be expired at 2AM as intended.

Aside from some persisting light rain, wind gusts will be the
other main issue for the forecast. Will likely continue to see
some 30-40 MPH gusts over the next few hours behind the cold
front. Additional gradient winds will bring gusts to 30-40 MPH
from early tomorrow morning through afternoon. Gusts tomorrow
have been increased slightly from the previous forecast, and a
few 40-45 MPH gusts in the northern third of the ILN CWA could
occur between 17Z-22Z.

Previous discussion >
Vigorous negatively tilted mid level shortwave to eject
northeast thru the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes as it gets
absorbed into the long wave trof.

Elongated deep surface low to track northeast to a position
over Lake Erie this evening. As showers and storms redevelop
back north across the area hi-res model solutions continue to
keep the strongest storms east of ILN/s area with a secondary
area of convection over the west close to the frontal axis. The
main threat looks to be heavy rain and flooding with the western
storms with a marginal wind threat. WOFOS 90th percentile (high
end) suggests the potential for 1 to 1.5 inches of rain with the
front with the highest totals over eastern Indiana and southwest
Ohio.

With a very saturated ground and observing responses on area
creeks and streams from earlier rainfall will continue the flood
flood watch thru 06Z.

As the surface low lifts off to the northeast, a sharp wind
shift is expected with the frontal passage between 222Z and 01Z
from west to east. Strong west-northwest winds to develop with
wind gusts up to 30-35kts late this evening into the overnight.
The rain showers taper off this evening, with dry conditions
for several hours before wraparound showers move back in during
the predawn hours.

Temperatures to drop to lows from the mid 40s northwest to the
upper 40s southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Deepening mid and upper level low settles into the Great Lakes
Friday with a digging shortwave pivoting thru the Ohio Valley.

This shortwave will offer persistent to keep rain showers
thru the day with perhaps even a rumble of thunder over the
southeast in the afternoon. West winds of 20-25 mph will gust
to 35-40 mph. Highs will top out from the lower 50s northeast to
the upper 50s southwest.

As the mid level low begins to shift east the rain showers will
begin to taper off from the west to east late in the day into
the early evening. Clouds to erode from the southwest with skies
becoming clear overnight. Lows to range from 40 to 45. The
strong west winds will begin to subside during the evening with
gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure covering much of the CONUS is forecast to provide dry
weather on Saturday. A disturbance pushing through the Great Lakes
will bring a low chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday night
and Sunday, along with gusty winds. Dry weather returns with high
pressure on Monday. Potent low pressure tracking to the Great Lakes
is expected to bring a more prolonged threat for showers and
thunderstorms accompanied by gusty winds Tuesday and Wednesday.
Chance for showers and thunderstorms persists on Thursday under
disturbance ahead of the next low pressure system.

Near normal high temperatures in the 60s are forecast for Saturday
in the circulation around the high. As the high translates farther
east, warm advection on a southerly flow coupled with insolation
will cause readings to rise into the 70s on Sunday, then up to the
mid 70s to low 80s for Monday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The steady -SHRA continues to pull away from the area, leaving
mostly dry conditions (for the time being) for the local sites.
This will be somewhat short-lived, however, as additional SHRA
will work back into the area, initially toward KCVG/KLUK around
10z, then elsewhere for KDAY/KILN/KCMH/KLCK around 13z-14z. This
activity will linger into early afternoon for all sites,
continuing at times through early evening for KCVG/KLUK before
drier conditions settle back in after about 00z Saturday. The
steadiest SHRA will be accompanied by VSBY reductions to MVFR,
with even some TSRA possible for KCVG/KLUK past about 18z or so.

MVFR CIGs will prevail through the first part of the TAF period,
except at KCVG/KLUK where some VFR sky conditions will be
possible until the SHRA moves in past about 09z-10z. These MVFR
CIGs will hold tight through about 21z before transitioning to
more VFR and eventually scattering out from W to E between
00z-03z Saturday. Skies will trend clear toward the end of the
KCVG 30-hr TAF.

WNW winds around 15-18kts, with gusts around 25kts, will
prevail through the morning hours before increasing during the
afternoon with steepening LL lapse rates and enhanced vertical
mixing. WNW winds around 20-25kts, with gusts to around 35kts,
are expected by mid afternoon. Winds should decrease toward the
end of the period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Sunday, Monday, and
Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT early this morning for OHZ026-034-
     035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT early this morning for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT early this morning for INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...Hatzos/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...KC