757
FXUS61 KILN 291803
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
203 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Southerly flow will keep temperatures well above normal today.
Showers and thunderstorms will start to move into the area this
afternoon and continue tonight into Tuesday as a cold front
crosses the area. High pressure will then build in for midweek,
offering a dry period. A chance for precipitation will return
for the end of the week into the weekend with the approach of
the next frontal system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Clouds that pushed into the western part of the forecast area
have been thinning although additional clouds upstream will move
in before the afternoon is over. To the east of this area, a fairly
extensive cumulus field has developed. Some light showers did
briefly occur in the upper Miami Valley and west central Ohio.
Something comparable will continue to be possible to the west of
I-75. Still expecting a few more degrees of temperature rise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Axis of low level theta-e advection associated with 8H jet of
35-40 kts across the area this evening. Ongoing showers and
embedded storms over the west late in the day. Instability
decreases this evening, so as the axis of showers and
thunderstorms progress east tonight the coverage of
thunderstorms will decrease. Rain totals today and tonight will
range from around and an inch in the west to a quarter to a half
inch in the east. Lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Models solutions generally trending a little slower with the
frontal system and therefore will keep the threat for showers
and a chance for thunderstorms in the east Tuesday. Clouds look
to decrease from west to east in the afternoon and pcpn chances
diminish. Temperatures will be cooler with highs from 70 to 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Subtle H5 height rises begin to occur at the start of the period.
Weak high pressure at the surface will be in place across the Ohio
Valley. Surface flow will shift from the west-northwest back to the
southwest for Wednesday. This, combined with the H5 ridge becoming
more amplified will lead to a spike in temperatures, with most
locations reaching 80 degrees again. Dry conditions and continued
warming will carry into Thursday. Based on latest guidance, Thursday
is now trending dry during the daytime hours for our entire CWA.

Mean ridge axis begins to shift east of our CWA Thursday night,
gradually replaced by a longwave trough. PoPs increase substantially
as we progress into Friday. There is better consensus amongst long
range models of Friday receiving the highest QPF from this system.
Chances for rain may linger into Friday night as a surface cold
front gradually moves through. Uncertainty then remains on PoPs for
Saturday depending on how the upper flow regime orients itself.
However, temperatures will certainly trend lower on Saturday.

There is a signal of a shortwave trough that ejects northeast from
the Ark-La-Tex region late Sunday into Monday. This will bring
another shot of wetter weather to the Ohio Valley, but timing
remains uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR will continue through the early part of the TAF period
with south winds gusting to around 20 kt. Showers will spread
across the region after 00Z. Cannot rule out some thunder, but
the chance of occurrence at any one location was too low to
include in the TAFs. Initially, conditions will remain VFR, but
eventually ceilings and visibilities will lower to MVFR with
most locations experiencing IFR ceilings sometime after 05Z.
Showers will end from west to east after 09z and some
improvement in ceilings will occur late in the period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings may linger into Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...