National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KILX 180830
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
330 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

WILL CONTINUE PATCHY FOG ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL INTO MID
MORNING. LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
DAYTIME HEATING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN IL BY LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND
COOLEST AROUND PARIS...MATTOON/CHARLESTON AND EFFINGHAM AREAS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE UNTIL SUNDAY OVER THE WABASH RIVER
VALLEY OTHERWISE DRY TONIGHT WITH LOWER IN THE LOWER 60S AND COOLEST
BY DANVILLE AND PARIS. UPPER LEVEL RIDG NOSING INTO IL SUNDAY
ALONG WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH IL TO BRING WARMER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HAVE 20-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY...WITH BEST CHANCES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON NW OF THE IL RIVER. STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS (15% RISK SEVERE)
WILL BE WEST OF IL SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SPC EXTENDS A
SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO THE IL RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOME
SHORT WAVES PIVOT INTO THAT REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING.

SPC HAS ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
15% RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CUTOFF AND SURFACE
LOW OVER NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND AGAIN TUE WITH WARM/MOIST
AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL/SE IL AND SOME STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON/TUE NIGHT. NUDGED MONDAY HIGHS A BIT
WARMER IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. HIGHS TUE 80-85F EAST OF THE IL
RIVER AND UPPER 70S WEST OF THE IL RIVER.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MODELS HAVE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGESSING EASTWARD TOWARD
NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI WED AND LIKELY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO REGION TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED. STRONGEST
STORMS WED APPEARS TO BE OVER EASTERN/SE IL OR INTO INDIANA DEPENDING
ON SPEED OF STORM SYSTEM. LINGERING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WED NIGHT AND THU WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING INTO IL...THEN TRENDING DRIER LATER NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S FROM THU THROUGH SAT.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1137 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF SHOWERS NEAR KPIA WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
BY 06Z...HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN VCSH THROUGH 08Z IN CASE A FEW
SHOWERS LINGER. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT A LOW OVERCAST
WILL FORM AS WELL. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING CEILINGS
OF AROUND 1000FT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THINK THIS
IS OVERDONE AND WILL ONLY INCLUDE SCT CLOUD COVER AROUND 1500FT
ALONG WITH 2-4SM FOG OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE MORNING FOG/CLOUDS
LIFT...NEGATIVE CU-RULE POINTS TO A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 5000FT. WILL INCLUDE VCSH AT KCMI IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE
E/SE AT 10KT OR LESS THROUGH THE ENTIRE 06Z TAF PERIOD.

BARNES
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$