National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KILX 140210
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
910 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 908 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. A
RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT...WITH THE MCS TO THE WEST WEAKENING
CONSIDERABLY OVER IA/MO. FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

HJS
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 644 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS SLOWLY
COMING AROUND TO MORE NERLY AS THE SFC RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS
THE REGION. LITTLE MORE THAN SCT CIRRUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME DIURNAL CU TOMORROW...ABOUT MID MORNING...AT
4K FT OR SO.

HJS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

MAIN CONCERN THIS PACKAGE WILL BE ONSET AND DURATION OF PCPN THIS
WEEKEND...AND EXPECTED TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE
ALL MODELS LOOKS VERY SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT BEGINS TO
DIFFER BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BUT TOWARD MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...MODELS AGAIN LOOK SIMILAR. ON THE SFC...MODELS LOOK SIMILAR
OUT TO SATURDAY...BUT THEN DIFFER FOR LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND.
THEN ECMWF AND GFS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK. SO
OVERALL LOOKS TO BE WET THIS WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...THEN DRY FOR REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

HI PRSS RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW AND EARLY TOMORROW NIGHT. BUT THEN AS THE HIGH PRSS MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MISS VALLEY/PLAINS REGION. THIS AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR SOME NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY...IN THE IOWA/MN AREA...AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
CWA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM THIS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE THE
FOCUS FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT NIGHT AND
PROBABLY SUNDAY...AS ANY BOUNDARY WILL BE STATIONARY ACROSS THE
AREA. SO WILL HAVE LIKELY PCPN FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
NORTHWEST TO SUNDAY ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL AS HIGH PRSS
TOMORROW IS COOLER THAN LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND CLOUDS AND PCPN
WILL KEEP TEMPS AROUND NORMAL FOR REST OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN AROUND THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY BUT A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THINGS OUT OF THE AREA
AND BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. THE CWA
WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND THIS SHOULD KEEP US DRY THROUGH MOST
OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS CONTINUING AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
