170
FXUS63 KILX 061053
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
553 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A line of convection will push through central Illinois late
  tonight into Tuesday morning...bringing gusty winds and
  downpours.

- Scattered severe thunderstorms may fire along an outflow
  boundary along/southeast of a Champaign to Shelbyville line
  Tuesday afternoon/evening.

- Confidence is growing concerning a more significant and
  widespread severe weather event across much of central and
  southeast Illinois Wednesday afternoon/evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

A short-wave trough evident on 07z/2am water vapor imagery over
southern Missouri will continue lifting northeastward into the
Ohio River Valley today. Showers associated with this feature will
spread as far northwest as a Bloomington to Jacksonville line:
however, precip amounts will be quite light. Instability will
remain limited across much of central Illinois, but SBCAPEs
increasing to 500-1500J/kg warrants thunder mention along and
southeast of a Danville to Taylorville line. Showers will exit
into Indiana before sunset as short-wave ridging leads to a period
of dry weather this evening into the first half of the overnight.

Meanwhile further west, an organized line of convection will
develop ahead of a much stronger short-wave crossing the Rockies
into the Plains late this afternoon. These storms will push
eastward and spill into the Illinois River Valley after 09z/4am.
While instability will be waning, think gusty winds and heavy
downpours will be a good bet as the line pushes through the
western KILX CWA and arrives along the I-55 corridor by dawn. All
CAMs suggest the convection will continue eastward and exit into
Indiana before midday Tuesday.

After that, attention will focus on the exact placement of the
residual outflow boundary...which will play a key role in late day
thunderstorm development. At this time, it appears the boundary
will likely lay out along/near I-70. With a highly unstable/sheared
environment to the south across the Ohio River Valley, any cells
that form will be capable of damaging wind gusts and large hail.
The primary time frame will be from 3pm to 9pm before the storms
shift further east out of the area.

Barnes

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

After another lull in precip chances Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning, all eyes will be on a potential outbreak of severe
weather Wednesday afternoon/evening from the Ohio River Valley
southwestward into the southern Plains. Low pressure is progged to
track eastward out of the Plains into central Illinois...with GEFS
mean sea-level pressure suggesting the low will slide along the
I-72 corridor during the evening. A highly unstable/sheared
environment will once again be in place south of the low
track...with GEFS probabilities of exceeding SBCAPEs of 500J/kg
and bulk shear of 40kt of 30-40% along I-72 and greater than 80%
along/south of I-70. NAM 0-3km VGP values increase to 0.5-0.7,
strongly suggesting supercell development along the warm front as
well as within the warm sector. As a result, all severe weather
hazards will be in play...including damaging wind gusts greater
than 60mph, very large hail, and the potential for long-track
tornadoes. At this time, the greatest risk for widespread severe
weather will be along/south of I-72: however, this area will be
fine-tuned as exact details become more defined over the next
24-36 hours.

Once the low tracks into Indiana Wednesday night, the severe
potential will come to an end and a much cooler/more stable
airmass will arrive by the end of the week. High temperatures will
be in the 60s while overnight lows drop into the 40s Thursday
through Sunday. In addition, periodic shower chances will occur as
the Great Lakes/Midwest remains in a northwesterly flow pattern
aloft.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 553 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Widely scattered showers will track through central Illinois this
morning before gradually shifting eastward and exiting the region
this afternoon. After a period of dry weather this evening, a line
of thunderstorms will approach from the west late tonight. While
the exact timing of the convection remains somewhat uncertain,
HRRR/RAP have been consistently pushing it into the Illinois River
Valley after 09z. Have therefore opted to carry predominant
thunder at KPIA after 10z...then further east to KBMI/KSPI after
11z. Winds will initially be E/NE at 5-10kt, then will veer to
E/SE from late morning through the afternoon. SE winds will
increase and become gusty late tonight as the line of storms
nears.

Barnes

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$