000
FXUS63 KILX 190153
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
853 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 852 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

01Z/8PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LONG-WAVE TROUGH ALONG/WEST OF
THE ROCKIES...WITH A WEAK LEAD SHORT-WAVE NOTED FURTHER EAST OVER
IOWA/MISSOURI. HIGH-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM12 AND 4KM HRRR
SUGGEST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SO FAR THERE HAS BEEN NO
EVIDENCE OF DEVELOPMENT ON REGIONAL SATELLITE OR RADAR
LOOPS...HOWEVER MODELS INSIST IT WILL OCCUR AFTER 05Z. A QUICK
LOOK AT OVERNIGHT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK TOO FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP...BUT GIVEN GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS...WILL LEAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE W/SW KILX CWA TOWARD DAWN.
WILL ALSO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS.
ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

BARNES
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 645 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

DIURNAL CU WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE KILX TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. LEAD SHORT-WAVE AHEAD OF BROAD WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...SPREADING MID CLOUDS
BACK INTO THE AREA. BASED ON NAM RH PROFILES AND SATELLITE TIMING
TOOLS...IT APPEARS CEILINGS OF AROUND 7000FT WILL RETURN TO KSPI
BY 06Z...THEN FURTHER EAST TO KCMI BY 10Z. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE LATER SUNDAY
MORNING...LEAVING BEHIND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...AS LOW-LEVELS
REMAIN MOIST AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT. GIVEN
PRESENCE OF CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST AND A CONTINUED SE
BREEZE OF AROUND 5KT...HAVE ONLY LOWERED VISBYS TO AROUND 2-3SM
AFTER 09Z. ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF SUNDAY MORNING...AS WINDS
VEER TO THE S AND INCREASE INTO THE 10-15KT RANGE BY AFTERNOON.

BARNES
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
UPPER TROF DIGGING IN OVER ROCKY MTNS THE START OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL KEEP CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK. FOR NOW...QUASI
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND PLENTY OF WARM AIR OVER THE
REGION...WITH 11C-12C AT 850 AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS AT MID
LEVELS ON THE RISE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THAT SFC LOW
GETS A LITTLE DEEPER AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT ANCHORS MUCH
OF IL FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY MAY
DRIFT A BIT WITH MESOSCALE INFLUENCE OF ANY TS THAT MAY
DEVELOP...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...SEVERE THREAT FOR TOMORROW
CONFINED TO WEST/NW CLOSER TO THE LOW ITSELF. FOR MONDAY...THREAT
MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE LOW IS SLOW TO PROGRESS OUT OF THE MIDWEST.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND VERY WARM TEMPS TOMORROW...UPPER 80S AND CLOSE
TO 90 AS THE 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 16-17C. HEAT FOR THE NW GOING TO
BE INFLUENCED BY ANY TS/OUTFLOW/AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP.
THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR TS IN THE AFTERNOON NW OF THE
ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY...THE MAJORITY OF THE THREAT WILL BE AFTER
00Z TOMORROW EVENING. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS IS BASED ON THE
SLOWER GFS SOLUTION WITH THE STORM GENESIS TO THE SW. MODERATE
RISK IN THE SW...WITH MUCH OF THE SEVERE ACTIVITY HERE BEING LESS
WIDESPREAD IN NATURE...AND MODIFIED A BIT AS IT MOVES FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/DRYLINE/MID LEVEL JET MAX THAT
IS FAR SUPERIOR IN THE SW.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE REGION...CHANCES FOR PRECIP
AND SEVERE WEATHER SPREAD TO ENTIRE CWA FOR MONDAY. TS CHANCES
BEST IN THE AFTERNOON...AND WIND AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS...THOUGH MUCH OF THAT HINGES ON THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
AND LOCATION OF MID LEVEL WIND MAX. RAIN/TS CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH WED EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES
THROUGH THE REGION TUES NIGHT/WED MORNING. UPPER LOW SLOWLY GETS
OUT OF HERE THUR/FRI. AND THOUGH GFS/ECMWF TRYING TO SPIN UP SOME
WEAK SHOWERS...LEAVING THEM OUT FOR NOW AS REGION WILL BE UNDER A
BUILDING HIGH BRIEFLY AS ANOTHER LOW DIGS IN OVER THE WEST COAST
LATE THUR.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$