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000
FXUS64 KJAN 170856
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
356 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Today through Tonight...Synoptic & sfc pattern early this morning
consists of eastward building mean ridge at the sfc & aloft,
while low-level return flow will continue today. Water vapor/RAP
imagery indicate vertically stacked cold core low aloft/sfc low is
centered in the Mid West & progged to move into the Great Lakes
by this aftn. Upper low will weaken, leading to sfc low losing
some punch in the Great Lakes. Weak frontal zone is expected to
swing into the region, bringing some scattered light rain & storm
chances areas mainly north of the I-20 corridor. Regional radars
indicate some radar returns moving into the northwest ArkLaMiss
Delta & will spread to the east-southeast through the morning to
aftn hours. Can`t rule out an isolated strong storm or two,
especially in the Hwy 82 corridor (main focus in Golden Triangle)
but with narrow time window & light low-level flow, confidence
remains too low to mention in the HWO graphics. Southerly sfc
winds will persist, but lighter than yesterday. Seasonably warm
highs are expected, 3-5 deg. F above normal in the upper 70s north
of I-20 where rain/storms reside to low 80 elsewhere.

Tonight: As the cold core lifts northeast across the Great Lakes &
the Canadian border, quasi-zonal flow aloft will set up across the
region. Any lingering rain showers should wind down around or just
before midnight. With continued southerly return flow of
warmth/moisture, widespread clouds & low stratus can be expected
again. Patchy fog is possible in the Pine Belt in southeast MS
overnight. Seasonably warm lows, some 5-10 deg. F above normal, are
expected in the mid 60s east of the I-55 corridor to mid-upper 60s
along & west of the I-55 corridor. /DC/

Thursday through next Tuesday...A weak frontal boundary will stall
and quickly washout across the forecast area as we begin the period
Thursday. Under zonal flow aloft, weak ascent riding east along the
boundary will allow for isolated to scattered showers and storms to
develop along to near the front, mainly across northern portions of
the CWA, Thursday afternoon into the evening. While wind shear
leaves a bit to be desire, there will be some decent instability
across mainly northern portions of the area Thursday afternoon,
along with some marginally steep mid-level lapse rates.  As a
result, an isolated severe storm can`t be ruled out during this
timeframe.  Damaging wind gusts and up to quarter size hail will be
possible with the most intense storms.

Overnight Thursday into Friday, A slightly stronger disturbance will
push a cold front southeast into and through the CWA.  This will
again maintain some rain chances across mainly northern portions of
the CWA.  However, Saturday into Sunday, yet another disturbance
will shift east across the region under zonal flow.  This will
result in decent chances for showers, along with some isolated
thunder, across the forecast area Saturday into Sunday as cooler
drier conditions will advect into the region.

As this system exits the region late Sunday night into Monday,
northerly winds will persist as high pressure to the northwest
builds into the forecast area.  Quiet weather and drier air will
exist across the region Monday into Tuesday.  Winds will steadily
become more easterly Monday night and southerly on Tuesday, with
slightly warmer conditions expected on Tuesday. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

VFR conditions prevail, outside of scattered MVFR cigs at HBG &
PIB. Increasing low stratus deck is expected after 17/07-08Z for
areawide MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings, mainly at HBG & PIB, that
will persist through around 17/18-21Z today. Some SHRA is
possible north of I-20, but confidence in impacts from TSRA
remains low, with some psbl in the VC of GTR. Any SHRA will clear
out of most areas by 18/00Z & GTR around 18/01-03Z. Southerly
return flow will persist into the evening, leading to another
round of low stratus & psbl MVFR vsby/BR at PIB & HBG. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       80  67  83  66 /  30  10  20  10
Meridian      82  65  85  65 /  30  10  10  10
Vicksburg     81  68  83  66 /  20  10  20  10
Hattiesburg   84  66  85  65 /  10   0   0   0
Natchez       83  67  83  66 /  10  10  10   0
Greenville    80  69  82  66 /  30  10  30  50
Greenwood     79  67  83  67 /  50  10  30  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/19