Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
384 FNUS72 KJAX 091502 FWSJAX Spot Forecast for Osceola open Rx Spot...USFS National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1102 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on May 09. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. Please contact our office at (904) 741-4370 if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. ...HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES THIS AFTERNOON... ...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING... ...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY... .DISCUSSION... A squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms will sweep southeastward across the Osceola National Forest late this afternoon through around sunset, with the most likely impact time being in the 5PM - 7PM time frame. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms late this afternoon through around sunset will be capable of producing wind gusts of 50-70 mph, hail, and frequent lightning strikes. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Breezy southwesterly surface and transport winds ahead of this squall line will combine with elevated mixing heights to create high daytime dispersion values this afternoon. Prevailing winds will likely shift to northerly this evening in the wake of the squall line, with a brief period of gusty winds possibly continuing after the exit of thunderstorm activity through around midnight. Thunderstorm activity will lull overnight, with breezy southwesterly transport winds this evening shifting to westerly during the predawn hours as low cloud cover overspreads the burn site. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday morning and afternoon, with strong to isolated severe thunderstorms possible. Breezy west-southwesterly surface and transport winds will likely keep daytime dispersion values in the good range despite cloud cover and periods of heavy downpours. .REST OF TODAY... TIME (EDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........27 29 31 33 46 59 72 Weather cov..... CHC CHC CHC Weather type.... RW RW RW Tstm cov........ CHC CHC CHC Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 10 30 40 50 LAL.............1 1 1 1 3 3 3 Temp............85 88 90 92 92 92 91 RH..............61 50 45 40 40 40 45 Heat index (F)..90 93 94 96 97 96 94 20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT wind spd..13 14 14 14 14 15 14 20 FT wind gust.20 21 21 21 21 23 21 Mix hgt (kft)...3.3 4.0 4.5 4.9 5.0 4.7 4.1 Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW SW W W Transp wind spd.22 23 23 22 23 23 23 Dispersion idx..75 85 95 95 95 95 85 LVORI...........1 1 1 1 1 1 1 .TONIGHT... TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........71 70 69 53 52 55 60 65 71 72 73 74 Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH Chc of pcpn (%).50 50 50 30 20 0 10 10 20 20 20 20 LAL.............3 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............88 85 81 79 76 74 74 74 73 73 73 73 RH..............50 60 72 77 85 90 93 93 97 97 97 100 Heat index (F)..94 91 87 79 77 76 76 75 75 74 74 74 20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT wind spd..13 12 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 20 FT wind gust.20 17 16 14 14 13 13 10 10 10 10 10 Mix hgt (kft)...3.6 2.6 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Transp wind dir.W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W Transp wind spd.21 17 15 14 14 13 13 12 12 12 12 13 Dispersion idx..75 55 15 15 15 15 15 10 8 8 8 8 LVORI...........1 1 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 .FRIDAY... TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........76 77 78 77 79 84 84 83 83 92 100 100 Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF Chc of pcpn (%).30 40 50 50 60 60 60 60 60 70 80 90 LAL.............3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 Temp............73 73 74 75 77 80 82 83 85 84 84 83 RH..............100 100 97 90 82 74 69 65 61 63 61 63 Heat index (F)..74 72 74 76 79 89 90 92 91 89 89 87 20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT wind spd..7 8 9 10 12 13 13 13 13 13 14 15 20 FT wind gust.10 13 14 16 17 20 20 20 20 20 21 23 Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.6 0.7 1.6 2.0 2.7 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.9 Transp wind dir.W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W Transp wind spd.12 12 13 15 18 22 23 24 24 24 22 21 Dispersion idx..10 15 20 35 40 50 60 65 65 65 55 50 LVORI...........8 8 6 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 $$ Forecaster...Nelson Requested by...Byron Hart Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2413457.2/JAX .DELDT 05/09/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL Byron.hart@usda.gov