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000
FXUS62 KKEY 140734
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
334 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

All is quiet this morning across the Florida Keys. Winds have been
stubborn to increase and are generally sitting at 10 to 15 knots
from the northeast and east. Meanwhile, KBYX is echo free and
satellite shows just some high cirrus streaming in overhead.
Temperatures across the Keys are in the lower 70s with dew points
in the lower 60s.

The forecast period over the next 5 days can be described as dry
and mainly uneventful. Surface high pressure moving across the
Florida Peninsula will enter the western Atlantic overnight
tonight and into Monday. This will continue to slowly clock our
winds around towards the east. Meanwhile, aloft the mid and upper
level ridge will be trailing back to the west will move into the
Gulf of Mexico early in the week. The combination of these
features will provide deep layer subsidence along with
considerable dry air above the BL. This in turn will keep rain
chances near nil through at least Wednesday. Low level moisture
return looks to be slower in the most recent model runs and
therefore have trimmed back the slight rain chances by a day.
Otherwise, temperatures will slowly moderate into the mid 80s for
daytime highs and mid to possibly upper 70s overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Moderate to occasionally fresh northeast to east breezes will
continue through this morning before slowly diminishing. The
strongest breezes reside across the Straits of Florida where a
Small Craft Exercise Caution headline is in effect for these
waters. High pressure will slide into the western Atlantic, and
remain in place through the middle of the week. This will result
in fluctuating easterly moderate to modestly fresh breezes.
Thereafter, a secondary high pressure moving in from the Central
Plains will gradually fill in across the Gulf of Mexico. This will
briefly result in slackening breezes for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the TAF
period with nil rain chances. Northeast to east surface winds will
veer to the east this afternoon and evening with occasional gusts
of 17 to 18 knots expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...

On this day in Keys Weather History, the daily record warm low
temperature of 81F was recorded in Key West set back in 2020. This
is also tied for the warmest low temperature ever recorded in April.
Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  82  74  81  74 /   0   0   0   0
Marathon  80  74  81  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV
Data Acquisition.....MJV

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