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000
FXUS62 KKEY 120819
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
419 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

A late season front is crawling across the Florida Keys this
morning. The line of showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms
has decayed and pushed eastward out of our area. Behind this front
winds are northwest and gradually picking up. Most speeds are in
the range of 10 to 15 knots along the Reef, however, just upstream
across the extreme southeastern Gulf there are speeds of 15 to 20
knots being recorded at several of the buoys. The full effects of
the front have yet to be seen as dew points are still in the lower
70s. Looking across the Florida Peninsula, sub 60 dew points are
still back across central Florida. Some stratus and strato-cu are
lingering behind the front as there appears to still be some
gentle upglide with southwesterly winds at and above 3000 ft AGL.

Other than a brief surge in winds this morning, not much
excitement is progged for today behind the frontal passage. As
alluded to, dew points will steadily fall through the day bringing
a repreive to the muggy conditions. As a high pressure fills
in behind the front, winds will quickly clock around the
northeast. As this occurs tonight, we can expect a density surge
to come off the mainland tonight, strongest across the western
half of the CWA. This may result in a brief period of Small Craft
Advisory conditions for the surrounding coastal waters along with
breezy conditions for the island chain.

The aforementioned high pressure will slide east and eventually
settle across the western North Atlantic. This will allow winds to
continue to clock around to the east by the later half of the
weekend. In addition, winds will tend to peak and lull especially
Monday night and beyond. Despite the easterly flow developing low
level moisture will take time to return. As such, dew points will
be slow to moderate. In fact, it may take until Wednesday or
Wednesday evening before we see 70 degree dew points! The
combination of minimal moisture along with subsidence from deep
mean layer ridging will also mean near nil rain chances can be
expected through at least Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 418 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

A minor surge is coming down the west coast of Florida this
morning behind the recent frontal passage. This may provide a
brief period of moderate to occasionally fresh northwest to north
breezes to our western and northwestern waters. Breezes will
slacken briefly this afternoon and begin to clock around to the
northeast as high pressure quickly slides eastward. Expect a
nocturnal surge to develop overnight tonight with the potential
for fresh northeast breezes. Small Craft Advisories may be
required tonight for most of the coastal waters. Thereafter, the
high will slide into the western Atlantic and remain through the
remainder of the forecast period with peaks and lulls expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 418 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Latest nighttime microphysics imagery shows a band of low stratus
over the western portions of the area. These clouds are expected to
continue encroaching on both terminals over the next couple of hours
bringing prevailing MVFR ceilings. Latest statistical guidance keeps
the low ceilings through at least 12/16z today before becoming
predominantly VFR. Near-surface winds will be mainly northwest near
10 knots with occasional gusts to near 20 knots, especially from
early morning till around noontime. Lastly, later on in the TAF
period (near to after 13/00z) a nocturnal wind surge is expected off
the mainland that will result in another period of wind gusts to
near 20 knots out of the northeast.

&&

.CLIMATE...

On this day in 1985, the daily record rainfall of 6.19" was recorded
in Key West. This is also the wettest day ever recorded in April.
Rainfall records for Key West date back to 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  78  69  79  71 /   0   0   0   0
Marathon  79  69  80  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV
Data Acquisition.....MJV

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