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000
FXUS63 KLBF 091110
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
610 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely scattered showers Wednesday and becoming windy
  Wednesday through Thursday.

- Temperatures trending to well above normal by the end of the
  week and into the weekend.

- Increasing fire weather concerns from Thursday onward with
  persistent dry, warm, and breezy conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Weak ridging in split flow aloft between a closed low moving
through the Great Lakes region and another closed low over the
desert southwest will bring fair weather, warmer temperatures,
and a break from windy conditions to central and western
Nebraska today. However this respite will be short lived as some
northern stream energy will help push a cold front through
tomorrow with some widely scattered showers north of I-80,
along with another round of strong gusty winds with
probabilistic guidance showing 50th percentile gusts generally
in the 30 to 40 mph range during the afternoon. While the
overall convective environment is not very robust with ensemble
mean CAPE values struggling to reach 100 J/Kg, lapse rates are
modestly steep so a rumble of thunder can not be ruled out,
though with probabilistic guidance keeping the chance for
thunder under 10% will not mention in the forecast. Any
lingering showers dissipate as they move off to the east early
Wednesday night. However, the split flow will phase over the
Mississippi valley and drive development of a significant low
pressure system that will move from the southeastern US into the
Ohio valley. The tightening pressure gradient associated with
this developing low will keep windy conditions Wednesday night
especially across eastern Nebraska with 50th percentile gusts of
35 to 40mph east of Hwy 83.

High temperatures today will range from the upper 50s from the
western sandhills into the northern panhandle to the middle and
upper 60s further to the southeast. Lows tonight will be in the
30s. Highs tomorrow will be a bit cooler as the front moves
through with middle 50s northwest to middle 60s southeast. Lows
tomorrow night range from upper 20s west to middle 30s east.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Ensemble guidance remains in very good agreement in amplifying
a ridge over the western US and moving it through the Rockies
then into the Plains by the weekend. This will bring us dry
conditions with a notable warm-up for the end of the week and
through the weekend. Temperatures aloft will rise into 90th
percentile by Saturday and EFI/SoT guidance shows a good signal
for warmth through the weekend. The end result will be high
temperatures by Friday rising into the 70s for much of central
and western Nebraska, followed by upper 70s to middle 80s for
the weekend. It will also be just a bit breezy with the warm-
up as probabilistic guidance shows 50th percentile gusts of 15
to 25 mph. The combination of temperatures well above normal,
dry weather, and breezy winds will lead to increasing fire
concerns with potential for near critical conditions from the
end of the week and through the weekend.

By Monday a large closed low will move out of the southwestern
US and into the southern Rockies. This will push the warm upper
ridge axis to our east and bring an increasing chance for
showers and thunderstorms heading into the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 605 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

VFR conditions expected across central and western Nebraska this
TAF period. Expect some high based cumulus will bloom a bit
with heating this afternoon with some additional mid/high clouds
above this evening into tonight.

Winds will have a typical diurnal character and be generally
light under 10kt until later this morning when mixing brings
some gusts 20 to 25kt to the surface, then becoming light again
this evening with loss of heating after sunset.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...MBS