Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 280831
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
331 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to near critical fire weather concerns across
  western and southwest Nebraska this afternoon due to low
  relative humidity and slightly higher wind gusts.

- Warmer temperatures persist through today and tomorrow.

- Precipitation chances return this weekend through early next
  week. Highest likelihood of precipitation this weekend is
  across northern Nebraska, with more widespread precipitation
  expected on Monday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Upper level analysis and water vapor satellite imagery this morning
show upper level ridging over the western United States, including
western and north central Nebraska. An upper level low is off the
Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a weak surface low is situated
over central Nebraska early this morning. Around the low, a few mid
to high clouds are passing through north central Nebraska this
morning, with a larger shield of high cloud over the western
Panhandle. Surface winds remain light, but variable in direction
across western and north central Nebraska due to the surface low and
weak surface boundaries.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Under upper level ridging, areas of warm air advection at 850 and
700 mb occur today, supporting slightly higher surface temperatures.
With this in mind, decided to trend daily highs with the warmer
model guidance. Generally expecting mid 60s across most of western
Nebraska this afternoon, with areas of north central Nebraska still
experiencing a dense snow pack reaching into the 40s.

The main concern of this afternoon is the low relative humidity
values across western and southwest Nebraska this afternoon.
Forecast soundings support strong mixing from the mid levels to the
surface. Winds in this layer are not overly strong, however, and
will support wind gusts up to around 25 miles per hour. With the
combination of above average, low relative humidity, and somewhat
gusty winds, elevated to near critical fire weather concerns are
possible across western and southwest Nebraska this afternoon,
primarily in Zones 204 and 210.

Overnight tonight and Friday afternoon remain fairly quiet weather-
wise. Skies will gradually get cloudy this evening and tonight, and
generally remain cloudy on Friday. The biggest question will remain
the depth of the snowpack in north central Nebraska. If sufficient
melt occurs today, temperatures may actually get a bit warmer on
Friday across north central Nebraska. For now, running with the NBM
solution for temperatures, but adjustments may be needed depending
on the melt potential today.

A low pressure system ejects off the Rocky Mountains on Friday
afternoon in conjunction with an upper level shortwave. This brings
a chance of precipitation across western Nebraska Friday night into
Saturday morning. At this time, temperatures support the majority of
precipitation falling as rain, though some snow showers may mix in
across northwestern Nebraska early Saturday morning.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

By Saturday, an upper level shortwave is expected across Montana and
Wyoming, with a deeper upper level trough and cutoff low over
southern California. Of particular interest will be the northern
shortwave. A low pressure system with this shortwave will quickly
follow the previous low, keeping precipitation chances around this
weekend. At this time, this second system looks to be the better
rain producer. Currently, the projected track brings better
precipitation chances across the Sandhills and northern Nebraska
(around 70-80% chances). Latest runs even bring some rain chances
(up to 40%) into portions of southwest Nebraska Saturday night into
Sunday morning. At this time, temperatures mostly support rain as
the primary precipitation, and there is even some suggestion of
thunderstorms Saturday night.

Going into Sunday, lingering showers may remain across northern
Nebraska, as another low pressure system sets up another round of
precipitation. Timing is still being resolved, but generally looks
that Sunday night into Monday evening is the next round of
perception. Cooler temperatures are also expected as this system
passes, increasing the chances for a mix of rain and snow to become
all snow. Ensemble guidance suggests the possibility of accumulating
snow is around 50-70 percent across northern Nebraska. While
confidence is growing in precipitation switching over to snow,
questions still remain in timing and amounts.

As the upper level trough exits to the east, there will be a
transitional period of northerly flow aloft before upper level
ridging settles back in. At this time, the pattern seems fairly
quiet for mid week with temperatures warming back up into the 60s.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Scattered high clouds will drift into the area later tonight
into the daytime hours on Thursday. Ceilings will be around
25000 FT AGL. Winds will be from the southwest or south over the
next 24 hours, generally around 10 KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Richie
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Buttler


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