Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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469 FXUS63 KLBF 090852 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 352 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and Isolated thunderstorms are expected today, mainly across northern/western Nebraska and the Sandhills. - Dry conditions are expected Friday and Saturday. Shower/thunder chances return Sunday into next week. - Warmer (above normal) temperatures are expected this weekend into the first of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 A weakening area of upper level low pressure is drifting southward into Nebraska this morning. Cumulus clouds will rapidly form this morning as the boundary layer warms beneath cold air aloft (-2C at H7). Isolated to scattered showers will develop...and there is a small amount of CAPE present by midday continuing through this afternoon. Will continue the mention of isolated thunder this afternoon. Flow aloft is quite weak so any storm will likely be short lived. Otherwise a cool day is expected, especially across western/northwest Nebraska where more cloud cover will limit highs to the upper 50s. The upper low essentially splits by Friday. Part of the energy drifts southwest and becomes cutoff across the southwest U.S., with the rest of the energy being absorbed into a fast southeastward moving shortwave diving across the Great Lakes Region. The shortwave across the Great Lakes will drive a weak Pacific cold front southeast through the area. Actually, it won`t be colder behind this front Friday as we will loose the cloud cover. Highs should range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. The southwest U.S. upper low begins to drift into Colorado Saturday. Subtle upper level ridging develops across the southern into the central plains ahead of this feature. Temperatures will warm to above average as a result, with mid 70s common area wide. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Upper level low pressure pushes through Colorado toward western Kansas Sunday. Some moisture return occurs Saturday night into Sunday with surface dew points rising into the lower 50s. Conditions become somewhat unstable by Sunday afternoon and should see a few scattered showers/thunderstorms develop across the area. The better chances are across southern/southwest Nebraska in closer proximity to the upper low. Flow aloft is weak and severe weather looks unlikely with this system. The upper low tracks across Kansas Monday with continued precipitation chances, especially across southern portions of the area. Tuesday the upper low drifts east of the area while a shortwave dives southeast across the northern plains. A cold front associated with this could bring a round of convection to the area Tuesday evening. Above average temperatures are expected Sunday through Tuesday with highs well into the 70s. Wednesday will cool back to near normal behind the cold front with highs mid 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Mostly quiet aviation conditions are expected over the next day. Stronger winds will develop during the afternoon on Thursday, but should remain below 20 knots. Another round of light rain showers are expected once again across northern Nebraska on Thursday afternoon. Any impacts should be minimal and brief. Any isolated showers across northern Nebraska will dissipate after sunset with VFR conditions returning to the region. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Taylor LONG TERM...Taylor AVIATION...Kulik