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000
FXUS64 KLIX 211933
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
233 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

The axis of the shortwave that finally pushed yesterdays` cold front
through the CWA is just west of the Mississippi River and will be
reaching the Appalachian Mountains by sunrise Monday. The rain is
done and mostly sunny skies expected for all land areas before
sunset. Post frontal high pressure will usher in cooler and drier
air through Monday. Cold air advection combined with cratering
dewpoints will allow for lows tonight over 20 degrees colder than
just a couple days ago. The highs, however, should actually be
slightly warmer than today. That`s a combination of very progressive
nature of the upper trough and surface ridge as well as the fact
that its late April which yields much more insolation compared to a
couple months ago.

MEFFER
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Global models in good agreement that the local area  will be under
either zonal flow or upper level ridging this week. That`ll support
moderating conditions with quickly returning to above normal temps
Tuesday onward. Precip forecast still looking dry with no rain
chances through at least Thursday.  Beyond that, model solutions
diverge on when the next front/rain chances expected.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Showers have pushed south of all terminals with post frontal dry air
advection continued to decrease low level clouds. Most terminals are
VFR now and all should be within the next few hours or less.
Northerly winds will remain elevated around 10 to 15 knots with
higher gusts. Sites closer to water are observing gusts over 20
knots. Tonight, winds will further increase from the north at NEW as
the cold pool moves over the warm lake waters with sustained winds
of 20 knots and gusts up to 30 knots expected through the end of the
TAF cycle. Clear skies, albeit possibly thin cirrus clouds at times,
expected the rest of the TAF period. Elevated north winds will
continue Monday as high pressure builds in from the north.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Cold front that started moving through the coastal waters is
steadily marching south through the offshore waters. Based on the
current location of the boundary, went ahead an started the Small
Craft Advisory even though not all locations are seeing those 20kt
winds just yet. As the sun sets, should see that typical nocturnal
uptick in winds to solidify the advisory.

The progressive pattern of the upper trough and post frontal surface
ridge will result in the local pressure gradient weakening rather
quickly on Monday. Therefore, should see a fairly sharp drop off in
wind speeds 15Z onward. Then, by Tuesday, already looking at the
return of onshore flow as the ridge slides east. It should remain
there this week and continue to support southeasterly flow.

MEFFER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  42  68  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  48  73  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  47  73  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  55  70  56  79 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  48  73  52  76 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  47  74  45  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Monday for GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Monday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME