362
FXUS63 KLMK 140004
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
804 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Active pattern with 2 storm systems bringing chances of showers
    and storms through Saturday.

*   Scattered showers and storms, especially during the afternoon
    Tuesday and Wednesday.

*   Main impacts from this activity will be gusty winds, small hail
    and heavy rain that could result in localized minor flooding.

*   Another similar system arrives for the end of the week and into
    the weekend with a chance of showers and a few embedded storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Conditions remain dry early this afternoon with a few light showers
noted across western KY, SE MO, and TN. A nearly vertically-stacked
low pressure system is approaching Kansas City, with troughing
extending south across TX. This slow-moving low closes off as it
meanders eastward across Missouri this evening. Southerly to
southwesterly flow in the low to mid-levels will pull Gulf moisture
northward ahead of the low. Lingering dry air up through the mid-
levels will keep us mainly dry into the afternoon hours. A few
isolated light showers will be possible across the southern and
western parts of the forecast area by late afternoon and early
evening. Otherwise, expect a relatively quiet afternoon with
thickening clouds and temperatures topping out in the mid 70s to
near 80 degrees.

Tonight, moisture and lift deepen as the low rotates east across
Missouri. Moderate low-level moisture transport develops along a 25
kt LLJ. PW increases to 1.3+ inches with forecast soundings showing
a moist profile with limited instability. Scattered showers are
likely, and there is a slight chance (10-20%) for an isolated rumble
of thunder. Precipitation will be somewhat spotty, with more
widespread activity arriving Tuesday. Expect mild morning lows in
the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Numerous showers with scattered storms are expected Tuesday as the
low moves over the Lower Ohio Valley. While broad ascent is noted
along with deep, rich moisture, instability will be kept in check by
clouds and moist adiabatic lapse rates. Tall, thin SBCAPE developing
by the afternoon will support scattered storms capable of locally
heavy downpours, gusty winds up to 40 mph, and perhaps isolated
small hail. Deep-layer shear is only 20-25 kt, with stronger mid-
level winds remaining to our south across the Gulf Coast states.
This will significantly limit convective organization, and severe
weather is not expected. Rainfall amounts of 0.50-1.25" inches are
possible, with some locally convectively-enhanced totals not out of
the question. With a wet ground and above normal streamflow, might
result in some ponding and minor flooding issues in low-lying or
flood-prone areas. Temperatures will top out in the 70s Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Stacked system will slowly work across the Ohio Valley Tues night
through the day Wed. This will result in lingering clouds and wet
weather through at least Wed afternoon. Initially, any
showers/storms from Tues will diminish overnight due to a lack of
diurnal heating but with the sfc low slow to work eastward during
the day, another round of scattered showers and even a few embedded
thunderstorms. No organize severe threat is expected but models due
show amble instability with very low shear. Lapse rates per model
soundings don`t look very steep but with any activity couldn`t rule
out some gusty winds and small pea size hail. This will be
especially true during the afternoon as most of the activity will be
a result of diurnal heating. Lows Wed morning will be near 60 with
highs mid 50s on Wed.

Showers and any convection will diminish Wed evening as the system
works off the Delmarva Peninsula and upper ridging builds in over
the Ohio Valley along with an area of weak sfc high pressure.
Thursday will be drier and warmer for most of the day as high will
warm into the upper 70s to even a few 80s for the afternoon.

End of the week into the weekend the models continue to show a
second system working into the Ohio Valley but continue to show a
spread in solution both spacial and temporal between the
deterministic models. Expect to see an increase in non severe
shower/storm activity over the are for Friday into the weekend.
Given the differences in the deterministic kept the NBM Pops for
Friday into the weekend. Showers/storms could come in as early as
Thursday evening with the best chance during the day Friday. While
we have low all day PoPs for Saturday and Sunday, anticipate that
this will not be the case but confidence on timing and placement is
low so there remains a lot to be ironed out between now and then.
Highs will be in the upper 70s to near 80 on Friday but expected to
warm through the weekend with low 80s Saturday to the mid 80s on
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 804 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

An area of low pressure will move slowly across the Ohio Valley over
the next 36 to 48 hours, bringing elevated levels of moisture in the
form of low clouds, showers, and a few thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon. Tonight, ceilings are expected to gradually decrease from
SW to NE, with SDF/HNB/BWG favored to fall to high IFR/low MVFR CIGs
overnight tonight. Farther east at LEX/RGA, the low-level moisture
will be somewhat slower to arrive, so expect VFR ceilings to
continue until around or just after sunrise tomorrow.

Earlier, there was some support in model guidance for rain showers
tonight which could reduce visibility. Latest model guidance has
backed off on this potential until after sunrise tomorrow; however,
brief VIS reductions in any heavier showers remain a remote
possibility tonight. Tomorrow, intermittent showers are expected
across the region, with a few embedded thunderstorms possible in the
afternoon hours. For now, will handle this chance with PROB30, as
confidence in timing and location of these storms remains low.
Ceilings should drop to their lowest point tomorrow mid-late
morning, with a gradual improvement expected during the afternoon
hours. Winds should be fairly consistent out of the S/SE through the
current forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...CSG