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000
FXUS63 KLSX 180448
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1148 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THE COVERAGE OF RAIN/SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY WITHIN THE
LAST HOUR OR SO AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF MIGRATES INTO SRN IL/SE MO.
THE SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS ALSO MOVED WELL WESTWARD INTO
WESTERN MO AND IS NO LONGER A PLAYER FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WITH OUR CWA. GIVEN THESE TRENDS AND THE CONTINUED
PROGESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT...THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND CLOUD COVER WILL
DECREASE GRADUALLY AS WELL. T/TD SPREADS ARE QUITE LOW IN AREAS
WHICH EXPERIENCE RAINFALL...AND GIVEN THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...WE
SHOULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR. I MENTIONED
PATCHY FOG IN ANY EARLIER UPDATE BUT MAY NEED TO HIT THE FOG A BIT
HARDER IN LATER UPDATES THIS EVENING INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DENSE FOG.

GLASS

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED SINCE THE PREV AFD UPDATE. ONGOING TSRA WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE NWD THIS AFTERNOON. TSRA
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE SE THIS EVENING AS THE MCV CONTINUES TO
MOVE SEWD. OTHER THAN THAT...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PREV
FORECAST.

TILLY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WILL PROBABLY INITIATE SOME CONVECTION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS ILLINOIS. BEST CHANCES MAY REMAIN EAST OF THE
CWA...BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STORMS...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
LOW CHANCE POPS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS IN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON
SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S FOR TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY....BUT A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY MODEL GUIDANCE TO RIDE UP
AND OVER THE RIDGE TOWARD THE CWA. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE WARM
FRONT SHOULD BE ADVANCING NORTHEAST. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS AS
MCS COULD MOVE INTO THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING...AND/OR ADDITIONAL
STORMS COULD FIRE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER...BUT POTENTIAL CERTAINLY THERE FOR
HIGHS TO BOUNCE BACK TO NORMAL ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE MAINTAINED THE DRY EXTENDED
FORECAST AS THIS PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

RAIN HAS ENDED...AND VFR CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO THIN
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER MONDAY AT
KSUS...KSTL...AND KCPS...AND CALM WINDS...SOME FOG MIGHT FORM
AFTER THE CLOUDS CLEAR. GENERALLY WENT WITH MVFR VSBYS...WITH IFR
AT KSUS AND KCPS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRACKS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF ALL TAF SITES.
NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE DUE TO CALM
WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND HEAVY RAINS EARLIER ON MONDAY. NORTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN.

BROWNING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX