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000
FXUS63 KLSX 230826
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
326 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

WHILE SOME PRECIP IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOCUS WILL BE TEMPS.

UPPER TROF FINALLY ON THE WAY OUT OF THE AREA TODAY. THERE IS ONE
LAST CHANCE FOR PRECIP TODAY...THEN SOME DRY WEATHER...UNTIL
TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT ISOD SHRA TODAY MAINLY FOR THE NRN AND ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. DOUBTFUL THESE SHRA WILL LOOK MUCH DIFFERENT
THAN WHAT IS ONGOING ACROSS ERN IA/NRN IL...BUT BECOME MORE
CELLULAR WITH SOME HEATING TODAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER FOR TODAY WITH AMPLE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA...AND COOLER STILL FOR TONIGHT AS THE CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A THREAT
OF TSRA. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM 00Z MDLS YESTERDAY. MDLS ARE
STILL IN TWO CAMPS...ONE WITH THE MCS TRACK JUST N OF THE AREA
WHILE THE OTHER KEEPS THE MCS/S TRAVELING THRU THE CWA. THE ECMWF
REMAINS THE WET SOLN FOR THE CWA WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS MORE DRY
TIME.

THE MCS TRACKS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AS WELL AS WHERE/WHEN THE FIRST CLUSTER DEVELOPS AS WELL AS
OTHER MESOSCALE PROCESSES. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
LOW CHANCE RANGE EXCEPT FOR THOSE AREAS/TIMES WHERE MDLS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING TSRA.

DUE TO PRECIP QUESTIONS MENTIONED ABOVE...HAVE TRENDED TWD A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLN FOR TEMPS WITH GRADUAL MODERATING TEMPS
THRU NEXT WEEK.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER IOWA WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH...REACHING KUIN
12-14Z AND KCOU AND THE ST. LOUIS METRO TAFS 15-18Z. MVFR CLOUDS
CURRENTLY OVER IOWA WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH...AND HAVE
GONE WITH 1500FT CEILINGS AT KUIN AND 2000FT AT KCOU AND THE ST.
LOUIS METRO TAFS. THERE ARE SOME IFR CEILING IN IOWA...SO COULDN`T
RULE OUT THESE LOWER CEILINGS...PARTICULARLY AT KUIN. ISOLATED
-SHRA IS ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT KUIN...SO HAVE
MAINTAINED VCSH THERE. WEST WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND
TROUGH...AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY BY TOMORROW EVENING AS SKIES CLEAR.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...EXPECT TROUGH TO PASS THROUGH THE TERMINAL
AROUND 18Z CAUSING WINDS TO VEER FROM THE NORTH. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER INTO THE 2000-3000FT RANGE BY MID-MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING
BACK TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY.

BRITT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SAINT LOUIS     67  46  71  52 /  20   0   0  20
QUINCY          62  42  68  51 /  20   0   0  50
COLUMBIA        66  44  70  53 /  10   0   0  30
JEFFERSON CITY  68  44  71  52 /  10   0   0  30
SALEM           66  43  69  48 /  20   0   0  10
FARMINGTON      69  44  70  48 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX