National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KLSX 150904
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
404 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

WEAKENING MCS WAS DROPPING SEWD THROUGH NERN AND CNTRL MO AND W
CNTRL IL EARLY THIS MRNG.  THIS MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO E CNTRL MO AND SWRN IL THIS MRNG.  IT WILL LIKELY LAY OUT
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SERN MO AND SWRN IL WHICH MAY BE THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTN AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.  MUCH OF THE MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS MRNG ALLOWING
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE THIS AFTN AND LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

GKS

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

(TONIGHT - MONDAY)

ACTIVE WX PATTERN WITH PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN WILL
DOMINATE THIS PERIOD.

FLAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL PREVAIL THRU MONDAY
AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PUSH THRU.
THE OVERALL TREND FOR THE TRACK OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BE TO
GRADUALLY TRACK PROGRESSIVELY FURTHER S THRU OUR AREA.

THE FIRST OF THESE RAIN OPPORTUNITIES OF THIS PERIOD...FOR LATE
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...LOOKS TO INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER SRN IA AND
NRN MO WITH APPROACH OF SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BACKSIDE
OF COLLAPSING RIDGE AND IN AN ATMOSPHERE FINALLY RECOVERING FROM
THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION.  THE MAIN BODY WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE NRN
FA THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING ITS GAZE SEWD FOR THE OVERNIGHT...
MAKING ANOTHER RUN ON THE I-70 CORRIDOR MUCH LIKE WE ARE DEALING
WITH NOW.  THE LEFTOVERS OF THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A GENERAL LACK OF TRIGGERS IN THE AFTERNOON
BUT PROBABLY WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING BOUNDARIES...ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS S OF I-70...TO ALLOW NEW DEVELOPMENT WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY.

A NEW MCS IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN TRACK MAINLY EWD INTO THE CNTRL-SRN FA FOR MONDAY MORNING...
ALSO ALLOWING A CDFNT THRU AS WELL.

WITH ALL OF THESE RAIN CHCS...ANY HOT TEMPS WILL BE KEPT AT BAY.
SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE A DEG OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL ON MAXES...WITH A DEG
OR TWO BELOW AVERAGE ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY WITH EARLY RAIN AND A
CDFNT LATER.  MOS TEMPS AGAIN OVERALL LOOK TOO WARM AND SCALED BACK.

(TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY)

A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD WILL FOLLOW WITH SFC HI PRES DOMINATING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND NW FLOW ALOFT.  MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL
REMAIN JUST BELOW AVERAGE.

(THURSDAY - FRIDAY)

THE RESURGENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AGAIN MAKE AN ATTEMPT AT
BUILDING OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS.  A SFC WRMFNT WILL MOVE THRU LATE THURSDAY AND HAVE
MAINTAINED THE CHC POPS...WITH A WARM SECTOR SETUP FOR FRIDAY AND
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

TES

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

MCS OVER SOUTHERN IOWA BEGINNING TO MAKE A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD
MOTION...SO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST
AREA AFTER 09Z. SO ADJUSTED TIMING OF TEMPO GROUP AT KUIN...TO
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK...COULD
AFFECT KCOU...SO ADDED VCTS MENTION THERE AFTER 10Z. AS FOR METRO
AREA...STILL UNSURE ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL GET...FOR NOW HAVE
ADDED VCNTY SHOWER MENTION BEGINNING AROUND 13Z. OTHERWISE...
SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A BREAK IN ACTIVITY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE WITH BETTER
CHANCES IN THE EVENING AS MAIN COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. TIMING AND COVERAGE STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN...SO
JUST HAVE VCTS MENTION. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY DAYBREAK...WITH A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THIS
EVENING.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...MCS OVER SOUTHERN IOWA BEGINNING TO MAKE A
MORE SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION...SO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AFTER 09Z. WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK...STILL UNSURE ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL GET. FOR NOW HAVE
ADDED VCNTY SHOWER MENTION BEGINNING AROUND 13Z. OTHERWISE...
SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A BREAK IN ACTIVITY FROM 17Z THROUGH 20Z...THEN
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE EVENING
AS MAIN COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING
AND COVERAGE STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN...SO JUST HAVE VCTS MENTION
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS TO PERSIST THEN VEER TO
THE SOUTHWEST BY 06Z SUNDAY.

BYRD

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX