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000
FXUS63 KLSX 231656
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1156 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

HAVE HIT THE CLOUDS A BIT HARDER THIS AFTERNOON...AND MADE A
CORRESPONDING DOWNWARD TWEEK IN TEMPS DUE TO THE SEASONABLY CHILLY
AIRMASS AND LACK OF SUNSHINE. AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL IL...WITH SOME OF THIS EXTENDING WWD TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS NOW SHOWING UP ON
KLSX 88D. SO...HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

TRUETT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

WHILE SOME PRECIP IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOCUS WILL BE TEMPS.

UPPER TROF FINALLY ON THE WAY OUT OF THE AREA TODAY. THERE IS ONE
LAST CHANCE FOR PRECIP TODAY...THEN SOME DRY WEATHER...UNTIL
TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT ISOD SHRA TODAY MAINLY FOR THE NRN AND ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. DOUBTFUL THESE SHRA WILL LOOK MUCH DIFFERENT
THAN WHAT IS ONGOING ACROSS ERN IA/NRN IL...BUT BECOME MORE
CELLULAR WITH SOME HEATING TODAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER FOR TODAY WITH AMPLE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA...AND COOLER STILL FOR TONIGHT AS THE CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A THREAT
OF TSRA. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM 00Z MDLS YESTERDAY. MDLS ARE
STILL IN TWO CAMPS...ONE WITH THE MCS TRACK JUST N OF THE AREA
WHILE THE OTHER KEEPS THE MCS/S TRAVELING THRU THE CWA. THE ECMWF
REMAINS THE WET SOLN FOR THE CWA WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS MORE DRY
TIME.

THE MCS TRACKS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AS WELL AS WHERE/WHEN THE FIRST CLUSTER DEVELOPS AS WELL AS
OTHER MESOSCALE PROCESSES. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
LOW CHANCE RANGE EXCEPT FOR THOSE AREAS/TIMES WHERE MDLS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING TSRA.

DUE TO PRECIP QUESTIONS MENTIONED ABOVE...HAVE TRENDED TWD A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLN FOR TEMPS WITH GRADUAL MODERATING TEMPS
THRU NEXT WEEK.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

AREA OF CEILINGS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTH. CLOUDS TO CLEAR THIS EVENING
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND DECREASING.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...
A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WIND TO BECOME NORTH TODAY...THEN
NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

CVKING

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SAINT LOUIS     67  46  70  52 /  20   0   0  20
QUINCY          64  42  68  51 /  20   0   0  50
COLUMBIA        66  44  70  53 /  10   0   0  30
JEFFERSON CITY  67  44  71  52 /  10   0   0  30
SALEM           68  43  68  47 /  20   0   0  10
FARMINGTON      69  44  71  48 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX