Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 291951
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
251 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Scattered diurnal cumulus field has developed across much of the
forecast area this afternoon.  Could not rule out an isolated shower
across southeast MO and southwest IL late this afternoon where there
is a little better low level moisture and instability, but will
leave the forecast dry for now as the probability is very low.  The
cumulus clouds should dissipate early this evening due to the loss
of daytime heating.  There will likely be some high level clouds
tonight.  Discounting the GFS model which has light QPF and chance
pops over northeast MO late tonight.  It does not appear that there
will be enough forcing or moisture to generate any precipitation
late tonight, and will go with the dry solutions of the NAM and
ECMWF models. The surface wind will become light or even calm this
evening with a surface ridge over our area. There should be enough
radiational cooling to allow temperatures to drop into the lower 60s
late tonight/early Monday morning over most of the area with a few
spots in the upper 50s for lows.

GKS

.LONG TERM...  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Most of the holiday will be dry, but low level flow will bring
moisture back into the region with rain chances increasing as the
day progresses and first in a series of shortwaves slide through
area. So have slight chance/pops mainly for areas along and west
of Mississippi River. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s
Monday.

Rounds of activity to persist through midweek with best chances of
storms Tuesday night and Wednesday, so have likely pops for most of
forecast area. Have some decent CAPES on Wednesday with frontal
boundary moving through, but it is still too far out to determine if
we will see any severe weather by mid week. Highs through midweek
will be in the in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Then cold front to exit region bringing in slightly cooler and drier
wx through at least Saturday. However, highs will still be near
normal, in the mid to upper 70s. Could see wet pattern return for
next Sunday, but for now just kept slight chance/low end chance pops
at this time.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds developing across southern
portions of MO and IL will impact COU and the St Louis metro area
this afternoon. Otherwise just some high level cloudiness this
period. Mainly a west-northwest surface wind this afternoon with
surface ridge centered over southwestern MO, then light surface
wind tonight, and southwesterly Monday morning as the surface
ridge axis begins to shift east of the taf sites.

Specifics for KSTL: Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds both this
afternoon and Monday afternoon. Otherwise just some high level
cloudiness through the forecast period. Northwest surface wind
will become light this evening, then increase to around 7 kts
Monday afternoon from a south-southeasterly direction.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     64  87  67  85 /   5  20  20  30
Quincy          62  86  64  82 /  10  20  30  50
Columbia        61  85  64  82 /  10  30  30  50
Jefferson City  61  86  65  84 /  10  40  30  50
Salem           61  84  64  84 /   5   5  10  20
Farmington      59  84  62  83 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$
WFO LSX



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