Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 042018
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
218 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 217 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

All of the precipitation has changed to snow over our forecast area.
As of 20z, heaviest band of snow has setup along a line from
Reynolds County MO to Randolph County IL, in the warning area.
Upwards of two inches has fallen in this area so far with lesser
amounts to the north. With decent lift as next shortwave slides east
northeast through southern MO, will see another 2 to 3 inches, maybe
a bit more, before snow tapers off late this evening. Storm totals
in our far south still look to be between 3 to 6 inches. For now
will keep all headlines going. Otherwise, for areas north of I-44 in
MO and I-70 in IL, it will be dry  with skies remaining mostly
cloudy overnight. As for low temps, single digits far north to the
mid teens far south.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 217 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

(Thursday through Saturday)

Sfc ridge will continue to build into the region Thurs with NW flow
aloft. Based on upstream obs over ND/SD, have trended cloud forecast
twd the more cloudy NAM/Local WRF for Thurs. Expecting high level
clouds to pull sewd out of the region during the morning, with CU
developing during the late morning into afternoon. Based on progd
soundings across the region, any CU that develops has the potential
for flurries. While going forecast contains more cloud cover than
previously, have kept temps for Thurs as-is as breaks in clouds shud
help temps warm.

Otherwise, little change to prev forecast thru Sat as prev forecast
still appears on track.

(Sunday through Wednesday)

Not much change to the prev forecast. Mdls are in rather good
agreement overall. NW flow aloft dominates the extd and lacks any
noteworthy trof. That said, a weak s/w and associated sfc cdfnt pass
to the NE of the region late Sat which shud be monitored for future
shifts in track.

Overall, no precip expected thru the period with temps that
gradually warm thru the period with above seasonal average temps by
Sun and into next week.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

VFR cigs to persist at KCOU and KUIN while metro area tafs to deal
with a few more hours of MVFR cigs and vsbys from time to time
with the light snow before tapering off. Otherwise, winds to
remain from the north through the forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Metro area to deal with a few more hours of MVFR cigs and vsbys
from time to time with the light snow before tapering off after
20z Wednesday. Otherwise, winds to remain from the north through the
forecast period.

Byrd

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     11  22  11  37 /  20   5   0   0
Quincy           4  17  10  38 /   5   0   0   0
Columbia        12  24  14  43 /  10   5   0   0
Jefferson City  13  25  14  43 /  10   5   0   0
Salem           12  19   3  30 /  40   5   0   0
Farmington      12  24   5  33 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR Crawford
     MO-Jefferson MO-Washington MO.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until Midnight CST tonight FOR Iron MO-
     Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR Clinton
     IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until Midnight CST tonight FOR Randolph IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX





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