Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
358 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN
TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LATEST FORECAST DATA SUGGESTS THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
THREE TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN IS LOOKING LIKELY FOR THIS PART OF THE
REGION...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

IT APPEARS THAT THIS HEAVY RAIN WILL COME IN TWO WAVES. THE FIRST
WAVE OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD OCCUR ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A LULL ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF
MODERATE AND HEAVY RAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

THE SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION IS CURRENTLY RUNNING 1 TO 2
INCHES ABOVE NORMAL AND LOCAL RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL STAGE AND FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  IN ADDITION...THE
LACK OF VEGETATION IN THE DORMANT WINTER SEASON INCREASES THE
POTENTIAL FOR RUNOFF FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THESE ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL OF VERY HIGH RAINFALL
TOTALS...COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING...AND/OR A
WORSENING OF THE ONGOING FLOODING ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
ILLINOIS RIVERS.

THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE
LATEST WEATHER AND RIVER FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THROUGHOUT THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

$$

TRUETT



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