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Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
000
FGUS73 KLSX 241816
ESFLSX
ILC001-009-013-027-051-149-MOC051-053-071-073-099-111-113-127-
137-151-163-173-183-189-221-DDHHMM-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST. LOUIS MO
111 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 5/27/2013 - 8/25/2013
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:DARDENNE CREEK
ST. PETERS 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 36 31 27 21 11 9
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
CANTON LD20 14.0 20.0 25.0 : >95 29 6 <5 <5 <5
QUINCY 17.0 18.0 22.5 : 73 29 55 23 14 6
HANNIBAL 16.0 22.0 24.0 : 70 31 9 <5 <5 <5
SAVERTON LD22 16.0 20.0 22.0 : 62 27 18 8 13 <5
LOUISIANA 15.0 20.0 25.0 : >95 37 19 6 <5 <5
CLARKSVILLE LD24 25.0 31.0 33.0 : >95 37 14 6 9 <5
WINFIELD LD25 26.0 30.0 34.0 : 63 31 24 8 <5 <5
:NORTH FABIUS RIVER
EWING 11.0 14.0 18.0 : 42 34 26 24 9 9
:MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER
EWING 12.0 17.0 19.5 : 36 34 19 14 6 6
:SOUTH FABIUS RIVER
TAYLOR 9.5 14.0 19.0 : 39 34 14 11 <5 <5
:NORTH RIVER
PALMYRA 13.0 16.0 22.0 : 39 31 31 24 <5 <5
:MID FORK SALT RIVER
HOLLIDAY 17.0 22.0 26.0 : 34 32 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SALT RIVER
NEW LONDON 19.0 25.0 27.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:CUIVRE RIVER
TROY 21.0 25.0 29.0 : 45 42 26 21 <5 <5
OLD MONROE 24.0 27.0 30.0 : 44 21 18 <5 <5 <5
:MERAMEC RIVER
STEELVILLE 12.0 20.0 25.0 : 18 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
SULLIVAN 11.0 20.0 29.0 : 34 18 <5 <5 <5 <5
:BOURBEUSE RIVER
UNION 15.0 22.0 26.0 : 24 13 <5 <5 <5 <5
:MERAMEC RIVER
PACIFIC 15.0 23.0 27.0 : 21 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
:BIG RIVER
BYRNESVILLE 16.0 20.0 28.0 : 23 16 6 8 <5 <5
:MERAMEC RIVER
EUREKA 18.0 25.0 30.0 : 16 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
:KASKASKIA RIVER
CARLYLE TW 423.5 431.0 435.0 : 16 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
VANDALIA 18.0 24.0 26.0 : 37 29 11 <5 <5 <5
:LA MOINE RIVER
RIPLEY 22.0 23.0 27.0 : 41 27 37 24 8 <5
:MOREAU RIVER
JEFFERSON CITY 17.0 25.0 29.0 : 35 32 15 13 <5 <5
:MARIES RIVER
WESTPHALIA 10.0 15.0 20.0 : 14 15 5 5 <5 <5
:GASCONADE RIVER
RICH FOUNTAIN 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 8 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 5/27/2013 - 8/25/2013
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:DARDENNE CREEK
ST. PETERS 3.6 3.6 6.9 11.6 20.6 23.8 25.4
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
CANTON LD20 14.2 14.2 14.2 15.5 16.9 19.1 20.9
QUINCY 16.9 16.9 17.0 18.5 20.4 23.7 25.0
HANNIBAL 15.9 15.9 15.9 17.5 19.2 22.1 23.1
SAVERTON LD22 15.1 15.1 15.3 17.5 19.6 22.7 23.6
LOUISIANA 15.6 15.6 15.8 17.6 19.6 22.6 23.4
CLARKSVILLE LD24 25.5 25.5 25.7 27.4 29.6 33.1 33.9
WINFIELD LD25 25.4 25.4 25.6 27.8 30.0 33.0 34.0
:NORTH FABIUS RIVER
EWING 4.2 5.0 6.6 9.9 14.8 18.5 19.6
:MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER
EWING 3.6 4.0 6.8 10.8 15.1 19.2 20.3
:SOUTH FABIUS RIVER
TAYLOR 3.5 4.8 6.3 9.0 12.1 14.9 17.0
:NORTH RIVER
PALMYRA 5.5 6.2 7.8 10.1 17.7 21.6 22.3
:MID FORK SALT RIVER
HOLLIDAY 5.1 6.1 9.2 13.7 19.8 21.3 22.6
:SALT RIVER
NEW LONDON 9.2 9.2 9.6 10.9 13.6 16.2 16.9
:CUIVRE RIVER
TROY 6.3 8.9 12.4 20.2 25.3 27.0 27.8
OLD MONROE 20.2 20.3 20.8 23.8 25.6 28.6 30.1
:MERAMEC RIVER
STEELVILLE 2.7 2.7 3.2 6.4 10.7 13.8 15.6
SULLIVAN 4.6 4.6 4.6 8.2 12.3 16.3 20.4
:BOURBEUSE RIVER
UNION 3.2 3.2 4.6 10.4 14.9 19.0 20.5
:MERAMEC RIVER
PACIFIC 2.2 2.2 2.3 8.4 14.1 18.0 21.6
:BIG RIVER
BYRNESVILLE 4.3 4.3 5.5 9.7 15.2 18.9 22.0
:MERAMEC RIVER
EUREKA 4.7 4.7 4.9 11.0 16.5 23.1 24.9
:KASKASKIA RIVER
CARLYLE TW 422.3 422.3 422.3 422.3 422.5 424.0 424.3
VANDALIA 10.0 10.7 12.0 14.8 21.1 24.3 25.2
:LA MOINE RIVER
RIPLEY 14.4 14.5 16.7 21.3 24.2 26.2 27.5
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.
...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 5/27/2013 - 8/25/2013
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:DARDENNE CREEK
ST. PETERS 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
CANTON LD20 7.4 5.8 4.8 3.9 3.3 2.8 2.5
QUINCY 12.5 12.1 11.8 11.5 11.0 10.9 10.9
HANNIBAL 11.5 10.8 10.4 10.0 9.8 9.7 9.6
SAVERTON LD22 8.2 7.0 6.2 5.2 4.7 4.4 4.1
LOUISIANA 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.7
CLARKSVILLE LD24 18.5 17.0 16.2 15.0 14.2 13.9 13.4
WINFIELD LD25 18.3 16.8 16.0 14.8 14.1 13.7 13.3
:NORTH FABIUS RIVER
EWING 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9
:MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER
EWING 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
:SOUTH FABIUS RIVER
TAYLOR 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6
:NORTH RIVER
PALMYRA 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0
:MID FORK SALT RIVER
HOLLIDAY 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.6
:SALT RIVER
NEW LONDON 5.4 5.3 4.9 3.1 2.4 2.3 2.3
:CUIVRE RIVER
TROY 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9
OLD MONROE 14.2 12.8 12.0 10.5 9.7 9.5 9.4
:MERAMEC RIVER
STEELVILLE 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6
SULLIVAN 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3
:BOURBEUSE RIVER
UNION 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7
:MERAMEC RIVER
PACIFIC -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.2
:BIG RIVER
BYRNESVILLE 2.6 2.5 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.4
:MERAMEC RIVER
EUREKA 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7
:KASKASKIA RIVER
CARLYLE TW 418.7 415.4 411.1 411.1 411.1 411.1 411.1
VANDALIA 9.3 3.1 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0
:LA MOINE RIVER
RIPLEY 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/LSX FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TOWARD THE END NEXT MONTH.
FUCHS
$$
- National Weather Service
- St. Louis, MO Weather Forecast Office
- 12 Missouri Research Park Drive
- St. Charles, MO 63304-5685
- 636-441-8467
- Page Author: LSX Webmaster
- Web Master's E-mail: w-lsx.webmaster@noaa.gov
- Page last modified: Jun 3rd, 2013 13:59 UTC