Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FNUS73 KLSX 231408
FWSLSX

SPOT FORECAST FOR WELDON SPRING GLADE...MDC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
908 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON MARCH 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE SEVERE. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE REQUESTING AGENCY ASKED FOR ADDITIONAL TIMING INFORMATION FOR THE
WIND SHIFTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA. INITIALLY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY AFTER THE WARM
FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC FOR
A PERIOD ON MONDAY MORNING WHILE A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES ACROSS MISSOURI
AND ILLINOIS. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY THEN TURN NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY DURING LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AFTER THE COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD. WINDS GRADUALLY
TURN EASTERLY OVERNIGHT ON MONDAY NIGHT THEN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. WINDS BRIEFLY TURN SOUTHERLY ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY
ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BACK FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
                    IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 64.
RH..................MIN 60 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTHEAST WIND 1-3 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 6-7
                    MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS. EYE LEVEL WINDS WERE CALCULATED WITH
                    AN ADJUSTMENT FACTOR OF 0.3 FOR PARTIALLY SHELTERED
                    FUELS (FUEL MODEL 9).
WIND...20 FT........SOUTHEAST WIND 6 TO 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    21 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH AROUND 25 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....GOOD (10369 M^2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

$$

FORECASTER...KANOFSKY
REQUESTED BY...JERODHUEBNER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150323.WELDO.01/LSX





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