Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FNUS73 KLSX 231246
FWSLSX

SPOT FORECAST FOR LOST LAKE 1 AND 2...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
746 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 CDT ON MARCH 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI DOWN THROUGH THE
STL METRO AREA TODAY.  THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  WIND WILL TURN FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND FINALLY BACK TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.  THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY.

MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING.  SOME OF THE STORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE SEVERE.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1500...THEN 1-8 STRIKES.
TEMPERATURE.........59 AT IGNITION...MAX 67.
RH..................67 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 52 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTHWEST WIND AT 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
                    DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WIND...20 FT........SOUTHWEST WIND AT 10 MPH AT IGNITION...SHIFTING TO
                    THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL AT IGNITION...5100 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 18 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....GOOD (12930 M^2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 0100...THEN 1-8 STRIKES.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 48.
RH..................MAX 89 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....LIGHT WIND.
WIND...20 FT........LIGHT EAST WIND.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING AND THEN AGAIN IN THE
                    LATE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
LAL.................9-15 STRIKES.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 71.
RH..................MIN 49 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 5 MPH.
WIND...20 FT........SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH AROUND 29 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....GOOD (15522 M^2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

$$

FORECASTER...CVKING
REQUESTED BY...CHARLENE NAZARENKO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150323.LOSTL.01/LSX



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