Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FNUS73 KLSX 292236
FWSLSX

SPOT FORECAST FOR SHAW NATURE RESERVE...MISSOURI BOTANICAL GARDEN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
436 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CST ON NOVEMBER 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY TONIGHT AFTER THE FRONT
HAS MOVED THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER AND CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........39 AT IGNITION...MAX 48.
RH..................70 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 44 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    WEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NO FUEL TYPE OR SHELTERING INFORMATION WAS PROVIDED.
                    ASSUMING AN ADJUSTMENT FACTOR OF 0.3 FOR PARTIALLY
                    SHELTERED FUELS OF ALL TYPES. WEST WINDS 2-3 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE WEST WINDS 2-4 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
                    TO 8 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AT IGNITION...3800 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 26 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (13870 M/S-M) AT MAX HEATING.

TIME (CST)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   7 PM
SKY (%).........5      75     76     72     75     66
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
TEMP............39     44     47     47     43     41
RH..............70     60     53     51     60     62
20 FT WIND......W 8    W 11   W 13   W 13   W 10   W 8
20 FT WIND GUST.15     20     20     25     15     10

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 30.
RH..................MAX 90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NO FUEL TYPE OR SHELTERING INFORMATION WAS PROVIDED.
                    ASSUMING AN ADJUSTMENT FACTOR OF 0.3 FOR PARTIALLY
                    SHELTERED FUELS OF ALL TYPES. WEST WINDS 2-3 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........N/A.
MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....N/A.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....N/A.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 44.
RH..................MIN 46 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NO FUEL TYPE OR SHELTERING INFORMATION WAS PROVIDED.
                    ASSUMING AN ADJUSTMENT FACTOR OF 0.3 FOR PARTIALLY
                    SHELTERED FUELS OF ALL TYPES. WEST WINDS 2-4 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (8090 M/S-M) AT MAX HEATING.

$$

FORECASTER...KANOFSKY
REQUESTED BY...MIKE SAXTON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1603751.0/LSX



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