Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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800
FNUS73 KLSX 171915
FWSLSX

Spot Forecast for Mark Twain Lake...U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
215 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on April 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Light southeast wind Tuesday morning will turn to the south
by late morning or early afternoon.  Wind will continue to
veer to the south-southwest during the mid to late afternoon.
Relative humidity will be rather high with afternoon minimum
barely falling below 50 percent.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........60 at ignition...Max 76.
RH..................67 percent at ignition...Min 47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 9 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds 8 to 10 mph.
Eye level winds.....South wind at 3 to 4 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......1000 ft at ignition, 4300 ft AGL at max heating.
Transport winds.....South around 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (9430 m/s-m) at max heating.

TIME (CDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   7 PM
Sky (%).........48     60     39     55     60     43
Weather cov.....                                   CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                                   CHANCE
CWR.............0      0      0      10     10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      3
Temp............60     68     72     76     76     73
RH..............67     57     53     50     50     59
20 ft wind......S 9    S 10   S 10   S 10   S 9    SW 6
20 ft wind gust.15     15     15     15     15

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes.
Temperature.........Min 61.
RH..................Max 94 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 6 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Eye level winds.....South wind 2 to 3 mph.
Haines Index........N/A.
Mixing height.......N/A.
Transport winds.....N/A.
Smoke dispersal.....N/A.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........Max 82.
RH..................Min 44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Eye level winds.....South wind 2 to 5 mph with gusts to 8 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......5600 ft AGL at max heating.
Transport winds.....South around 24 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (18380 m/s-m) at max heating.

$$
Forecaster...Carney
Requested by...Shelly Howald
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707060.0/LSX



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