Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FNUS73 KLSX 111202
FWSLSX

SPOT FORECAST FOR MARK TWAIN LAKE...U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
702 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON APRIL 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO
AROUND 20-28% WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT OR BELOW 8 MPH.

HIT AND MISS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, BUT THESE WILL PROBABLY
STAY SOUTH OF THE BURN SITE.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........55 AT IGNITION...MAX 69.
RH..................43 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 26 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....UNSHELTERED TALL OR SHORT GRASS YIELDS AN
                    ADJUSTMENT FACTOR OF 0.4. WINDS EAST AT
                    2 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WIND EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 2 MPH
                    LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WIND...20 FT........WINDS EAST AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WIND EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING
                    SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......APPROXIMATELY 900 TO 1000 FT AT IGNITION...3200
                    FT AGL AT MAX HEATING. MIXING HEIGHT AT 1000 CDT
                    WAS ESTIMATED FROM THE RUC MODEL AND THE NAM
                    MODEL AT KMBY.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH AROUND 3 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....POOR (1492 M^2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

$$

FORECASTER...KANOFSKY
REQUESTED BY...ALLEN MEHRER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140411.MARKT.01/LSX






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