Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FNUS73 KLSX 171207
FWSLSX

Spot Forecast for White Unit E...Missouri Department of Conservation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
607 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 CST on February 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Used 12 PM CST for an approximate ignition time for the eye level winds
and mixing height.

Today will be another day with fire weather concerns. High temperatures
in the upper 60s to mid 70s and dew points in the 30s will create afternoon
minimum relative humidity values near 20 percent. The combination of the low
minimum relative humidity values along with a 12 to 15 mph breeze and low ten
hour fuel moisture values in the single digits will produce a heightened fire
danger across central...northeast and east central morning and west central
Illinois this afternoon. lighter winds preclude mention of fire weather
concerns in other areas. Cooler temps and higher dew points will raise the
minimum relative humidity. Due to the the higher relative humidity values
and lower winds...fire weather is not expected to be a concern on Saturday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........42 at ignition...Max 70.
RH..................73 percent at ignition...Min 20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 10 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southwest winds 8 to 14
                    mph. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Eye level winds.....Winds southwest around 3 mph at ignition...
                    otherwise 3 to 5 mph with gusts up to 10 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL at ignition, 3000 ft AGL at max heating.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 24 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (6930 m/s-m) at max heating.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........5      5      4      6      4      4
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............42     47     56     65     70     68
RH..............73     63     47     35     30     32
20 ft wind......SW 10  SW 13  SW 14  SW 13  SW 13  SW 10
20 ft wind gust.15     20     25     20     20     20

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........Min 48.
RH..................Max 89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 9 mph.
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds around 3 mph using a 0.3 reduction factor.
Haines Index........N/A.
Mixing height.......N/A.
Transport winds.....N/A.
Smoke dispersal.....N/A.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........Max 66.
RH..................Min 48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 7 mph becoming light.
Eye level winds.....West wind around 3 mph using a 0.3 reduction factor.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......2700 ft AGL at max heating.
Transport winds.....West around 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5010 m/s-m) at max heating.

$$

Forecaster...Miller
Requested by...Beshears
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702283.0/LSX


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