Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
000
FNUS73 KLSX 171259
FWSLSX

Spot Forecast for Minninghaw RX...USDA Forest Service
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
659 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CST on February 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Today will be another day with fire weather concerns. High temperatures
in the upper 60s to mid 70s and dew points in the 30s will create afternoon
minimum relative humidity values near 20 percent. The combination of the low
minimum relative humidity values along with a 12 to 15 mph breeze and low ten
hour fuel moisture values in the single digits will produce a heightened fire
danger across central...northeast and east central morning and west central
Illinois this afternoon. lighter winds preclude mention of fire weather
concerns in other areas. Cooler temps and higher dew points will raise the
minimum relative humidity. Due to the the higher relative humidity values
and lower winds...fire weather is not expected to be a concern on Saturday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........54 at ignition...Max 70.
RH..................46 percent at ignition...Min 24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest at 7 mph at ignition...otherwise south 7 to 10 mph.
Eye level winds.....Southwest around 3 mph using a 0.3 reduction factor.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......800 at ignition, 3000 ft AGL at max heating.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (7670 m/s-m) at max heating.

TIME (CST)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM   8 PM
Sky (%).........3      2      3      11     23     36
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............54     64     70     68     62     58
RH..............46     35     29     32     39     51
20 ft wind......SW 7   SW 9   S 10   S 9    S 7    S 6
20 ft wind gust.15     15     15     15     10     15

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy
                    (70-80 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........Min 48.
RH..................Max 89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South 6 to 7 mph until early morning becoming light.
Eye level winds.....South around 2 mph using a 0.3 reduction factor.
Haines Index........N/A.
Mixing height.......N/A.
Transport winds.....N/A.
Smoke dispersal.....N/A.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........Max 66.
RH..................Min 54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Eye level winds.....Light winds.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......4000 ft AGL at max heating.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (7460 m/s-m) at max heating.

$$

Forecaster...Miller
Requested by...Tim Bray
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702304.0/LSX


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.