Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FNUS73 KLSX 231825
FWSLSX

SPOT FORECAST FOR ELDERBERRY...U.S FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
125 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1430 CDT ON MARCH 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND WILL INITIALLY BE FROM THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN BECOME
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY AFTER THE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TODAY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE
STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE SEVERE. ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


.THIS AFTERNOON...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........67 AT IGNITION...MAX 69.
RH..................52 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 50 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....WEST WINDS 2-3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    AROUND 1-2 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EYE LEVEL
                    WINDS WERE CALCULATED WITH AN ADJUSTMENT FACTOR
                    OF 0.3 FOR PARTIALLY SHELTERED HARDWOOD
                    LITTER (FUEL MODEL 9).
WIND...20 FT........WINDS WEST AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    WEST WIND 6 TO 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING
                    TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AT IGNITION...5400 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 18 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....GOOD (13527 M^2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH
                    THE NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 0100...THEN 1-8 STRIKES.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 48.
RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....LIGHT WIND UNTIL EARLY MORNING BECOMING EAST
                    AROUND 1-2 MPH LATE...THEN SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AROUND 2-3 MPH LATE. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT. EYE LEVEL WINDS WERE CALCULATED WITH
                    AN ADJUSTMENT FACTOR OF 0.3 FOR PARTIALLY SHELTERED
                    FUELS (FUEL MODEL 9).
WIND...20 FT........LIGHT WIND UNTIL EARLY MORNING BECOMING EAST
                    AROUND 5 MPH LATE...THEN SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........N/A.
MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A.
TRANSPORT WIND......N/A.
VENTILATION RATE....N/A.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY THEN
                    BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
LAL.................9-15 STRIKES.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 71.
RH..................MIN 49 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTH WIND 2-3 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 6-7 MPH
                    UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 4-5 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO AROUND 7-8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. EYE
                    LEVEL WINDS WERE CALCULATED WITH AN ADJUSTMENT
                    FACTOR OF 0.3 FOR PARTIALLY SHELTERED FUELS (FUEL
                    MODEL 9).
WIND...20 FT........SOUTH WIND 6 TO 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22
                    MPH UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 13 TO
                    15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH AROUND 28 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....GOOD (15083 M^2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

$$

FORECASTER...KANOFSKY
REQUESTED BY...CRAIG GILBERT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150323.ELDER.01/LSX





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