Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FNUS73 KLSX 231449
FWSLSX

SPOT FORECAST FOR WEIMER-WILDCAT...MODNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
949 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON MARCH 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND WILL INITIALLY BE FROM THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN BECOME
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY AFTER THE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TODAY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE SEVERE. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........54 AT IGNITION...MAX 67.
RH..................69 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 52 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....WINDS SOUTH AT 1-2 MPH AT IGNITION. OTHERWISE
                    WEST WIND 2-3 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON BECOMING BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. EYE LEVEL WINDS WERE CALCULATED WITH
                    AN ADJUSTMENT FACTOR OF 0.3 FOR PARTIALLY
                    SHELTERED FUELS (FUEL MODEL 9).
WIND...20 FT........WINDS SOUTH AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    WEST WIND 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON BECOMING AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......APPROX 3000 AT IGNITION...5600 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 17 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....GOOD (13150 M^2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
                    EVENING.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 47.
RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....LIGHT WIND.
WIND...20 FT........LIGHT WIND.
HAINES INDEX........N/A.
MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A.
TRANSPORT WIND......N/A.
VENTILATION RATE....N/A.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY THEN
                    BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
LAL.................9-15 STRIKES.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 70.
RH..................MIN 51 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....LIGHT WIND EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHEAST
                    1-2 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 5 MPH DURING MID AND
                    LATE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 2-4 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 7-8 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING
                    AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. EYE LEVEL WINDS WERE
                    CALCULATED WITH AN ADJUSTMENT FACTOR OF 0.3 FOR
                    PARTIALLY SHELTERED FUELS (FUEL MODEL 9).
WIND...20 FT........LIGHT WIND EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING
                    SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 17
                    MPH DURING MID AND LATE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING
                    TO THE SOUTH 8 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH AROUND 24 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....GOOD (13590 M^2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

$$

FORECASTER...KANOFSKY
REQUESTED BY...JAMIE HUBERT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150323.WEIME.01/LSX





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