Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FNUS73 KLSX 271500
FWSLSX

Spot Forecast for Huzzah Ponds Dam...USDA Forest Service
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
900 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CST on February 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Warmer temperatures are forecast today as southeasterly winds return
along with more sunshine. A warm front will then lift northward through
the area tonight producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Gusty
southerly winds will bring increasing moisture and record or near record
high temperatures on Tuesday. The resultant unstable conditions on
Tuesday afternoon will fuel scattered thunderstorms, with showers
and thunderstorms becoming widespread on Tuesday night as a cold
front pushes across the region. Cooler weather and gusty northwest
winds will occur on Wednesday in the wake of the cold front.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (55-65 percent). Isolated rain showers
                    late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........43 at ignition...Max 59.
RH..................67 percent at ignition...Min 49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 3 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Light winds becoming
                    southeast 5 to 7 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Eye level winds.....Winds southwest around 1 mph at ignition...becoming
                    southeast around 2 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon using the wind factor adjustment
                    of 0.3
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......800 feet at ignition, 2100 ft AGL at max heating.
Transport winds.....South around 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3270 m/s-m) at max heating.

TIME (CST)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   7 PM
Sky (%).........5      37     54     56     67     77
Weather cov.....                            ISOLTD ISOLTD
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      10     10     10     20     20
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............43     51     57     59     56     54
RH..............67     63     57     55     64     74
20 ft wind......SW 3   S 5    SE 6   SE 7   SE 7   SE 7
20 ft wind gust.5                    10     10     10

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers until late evening. Isolated
                    thunderstorms during mid evening, then
                    scattered showers and thunderstorms in the late
                    evening and overnight. Patchy fog early in the
                    morning.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 2100, then 1-8 strikes until
                    2200, then 9-15 strikes.
Temperature.........Min 54.
RH..................Max 94 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the late
                    evening and overnight.
Eye level winds.....South winds 2 to 3 mph using the wind factor adjustment
                    of 0.3. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........N/A.
Mixing height.......N/A.
Transport winds.....N/A.
Smoke dispersal.....N/A.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Patchy fog early
                    in the morning. Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1200, then 9-15 strikes.
Temperature.........Max 74.
RH..................Min 53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Eye level winds.....South winds 3 to 5 mph using the wind factor
                    adjustment of 0.3. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL at max heating.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 38 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (18040 m/s-m) at max heating.

$$

Forecaster...GKS
Requested by...Tim Bray
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702996.0/LSX



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