Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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SPOT FORECAST FOR SILOAM SPRINGS...ILLINOIS DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
756 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON OCTOBER 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. MUCH COLDER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A WIDESPREAD FREEZE LIKELY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.


.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 57.
RH..................MIN 57 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....3 TO 4 MPH USING ADJUSTMENT FACTOR OF 0.4.
WIND...20 FT........SOUTHEAST WIND 6 TO 7 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING
                    AND EARLY AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 5 TO 6 MPH
                    DURING MID AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING TO THE
                    EAST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
                    BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH AROUND 13 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....FAIR (6818 M^2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 35.
RH..................MAX 97 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....LIGHT/VARIABLE IN EVENING INCREASING TO 5 TO 8 MPH
                    BY EARLY MORNING USING ADJUSTMENT FACTOR OF 0.4.
WIND...20 FT........LIGHT WIND EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING NORTH
                    AROUND 5 MPH DURING MID AND LATE EVENING...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 5 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    15 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING
                    INCREASING TO 12 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    21 MPH LATE.
HAINES INDEX........N/A.
MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A.
TRANSPORT WIND......N/A.
VENTILATION RATE....N/A.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 45.
RH..................MIN 37 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....5 TO 9 MPH USING ADJUSTMENT FACTOR OF 0.4.
WIND...20 FT........BREEZY. NORTH WIND 11 TO 17 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTH AROUND 26 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....VERY GOOD (16984 M^2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

$$

FORECASTER...GOSSELIN
REQUESTED BY...RAY GEROFF
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20141030.SILOA.01/LSX






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