Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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949 FXUS64 KLUB 081900 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 200 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 159 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Overall, winds are lighter than yesterday afternoon and are primarily out of the west at 15 mph or less. They will remain out of the west through the rest of the afternoon. Surface troughing across New Mexico will transition to a broad surface low and push eastward into West Texas by this evening. A cold front will follow later tonight and will back winds to the east to northeast as surface ridging spreads from Wyoming southeastward to the Southern Plains. This will help to keep afternoon highs mostly in the 70s area wide as well raise dewpoints back into the 40s and 50s. Overnight temps will still average in the mid 40s to upper 50s despite the cold front. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 159 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Broad cyclonic mid to upper level flow over much of the CONUS this weekend will lead to a cool air mass remaining in place Friday through at least Sunday, if not Monday, before some warming and reversion to the mean is likely to occur. Favorable precipitation chances remain the focus of the forecast as the models remain in good agreement with a closed low near Las Vegas, NV at 00Z Saturday opens up and moves eastward across the Four Corners Saturday night and across the High Plains on Sunday. Models have moved into better agreement with the overall pattern and are now favoring the more progressive GFS solution from this time yesterday. As such Saturday into Sunday look favorable with shower and thunderstorm chances with fairly moist, upslope low level flow has broader dynamic lift moving over it with the possibility for the added ingredient of isentropic lift just above the cool air mass. NBM remains bullish with precip chances as early as Saturday, peaking on Sunday, and then diminishing quickly Sunday evening as lift shifts to the east of the forecast area. NBM PoPs may be a bit high Monday afternoon with the potential for the mid/upper trough to be to the east of the forecast area but will leave those alone at this time given some lingering uncertainty with timing of the evolution. The models continue to diverge late in the period with the pattern Tuesday and Wednesday, although the potential for another short wave trough developing over the central High Plains support a thunderstorm mention in the forecast into Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 VFR conditions will prevail. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...51