Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
700 FXUS61 KLWX 011410 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1010 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Brief high pressure settles over the region today through Thursday leading to a warm and dry conditions. A backdoor cold front will cross the area late THursday into Friday before sinking south this weekend. An additional cold front and area of low pressure will pass through the area Sunday into early next week. This will result in increased chances for showers and thunderstorms along with cooler conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Visibilities continue to improve rapidly as dry air works back into the region on light northwest flow. The cold front from yesterday continues to push south and east of the region this morning while brief shortwave ridging/surface high pressure takes over the lower Ohio River Valley. Outside of a few mid and high level clouds mainly along and east of the Blue Ridge this morning clear skies prevail. High temperatures today will push into the low to mid 80s with mountain locations remaining in the 60s and 70s. Humidity values will come down as well with dewpoints hovering in the upper 40s and lower 50s this afternoon. WInds will remain light out of the northwest at 5-10 mph. High pressure slides over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Wednesday evening into Thursday leading to a continuation of quiet weather conditions. Lows tonight will fall into the mid to upper 50s with low 60s over the Baltimore/Washington DC metro areas. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Upper ridging builds over the area Thursday through Saturday supporting generally fair weather conditions. Temps jump back at or above 90F Thu as wind turn southerly, but begin to cool down Fri as backdoor front moves through the area. Temps drop further over the weekend as strong wedge settles over the area. Strengthening onshore flow late Fri night will result in a low overcast with rain/drizzle Fri night into Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface low pressure and the associated cold fronts will move over the forecast area this weekend, bringing increased chances for rain showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm. Plenty of moisture (PWATS 1.25-1.5") will make isolated instances of flooding possible with the WPC having the western portion of the forecast area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Sunday morning. High temperatures on Saturday will be in the 60s for most with overnight lows in the 50s. On Sunday, high temperatures will be in the 60s to mid 70s areawide with overnight low temperatures expected to be in the 50s to low 60s. Come Monday, the aforementioned area of low pressure will over the Atlantic off the east coast while weak front dips down through the forecast area. This front will lift north as a warm front throughout the day on Tuesday with diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms possible both days. The slight warming trend continues with high temperatures in the 70s both days. Those near the metro areas may get into the low 80s on Tuesday. Overnight low temperatures are expected to be in the upper 50s to low 60s both nights. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mid-high level clouds departing later this morning with SKC sky conditions later this afternoon. Light NW winds today, then becoming southerly Thu. Multiple cold fronts will bring showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm to the terminals both Saturday and Sunday. Sub-VFR conditions are expected at times on both days. In additions to reduced CIGs and VSBYs, southeasterly winds will gust up to 20 knots on Saturday and 10-15 knots on Sunday. && .MARINE... No hazards expected through Thu night. SCA conditions likely Fri into the weekend. Gusty southeasterly winds will gust between 15-25 knots on Saturday as multiple cold fronts bring showers and isolated thunderstorms to the waters. Small Craft Advisories are likely both Saturday and Sunday. While winds diminish slightly on Sunday, gusts 15-20 knots are possible in the afternoon. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EST NEAR TERM...EST SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...AVS AVIATION...AVS/LFR MARINE...AVS/LFR