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000
FXUS64 KMAF 130546
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1246 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

The short term forecast is rather pedestrian today.  WV imagery
shows a ridge over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this
afternoon, resulting in mostly sunny skies and afternoon highs in
the 80s most locations.

Tonight, an upper trough off the west coast will approach the Bay
Area, nudging the ridge east and putting us under southwest flow
aloft on the backside of the ridge. A honkin` 50+kt LLJ is
forecast to develop, w/return flow approaching advisory levels
over the Stockton Plateau and adjacent areas. This will advect
abundant Gulf moisture into the eastern zones. A fetch of high
cloud will combine w/return flow and increased moisture to keep
overnight minimums above normal.

Saturday, as leeside troughing develops on the Front Range,
surface winds will take on a more westerly component, adding a
little downslope warming to increasing thicknesses to yield
afternoon highs a pleasant ~ 8-10F above normal.

Saturday night, while the LLJ is not forecast to be quite as
obstreperous as tonight`s, it`ll still continue advecting
plentiful Gulf moisture into the east, w/50F surface dewpoints
almost to KINK by 12Z Sunday. w/plenty of high cloud persisting,
overnight lows should be ~ 10-12F above normal on average.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

The long term begins with Sunday seeing the warmest temperatures
of the year so far with many spots in the upper 80s to low 90s.
April 8th is the average first date to reach 90F at Midland Intl
and Sunday looks to be the first day it reaches and eclipses 90F.
Strong southwesterly flow develops on Monday with the approach of
an upper level trough and accompanying jet. Wind products will be
necessary across southeast New Mexico and portions of West Texas
as confidence increases on where highest winds will be expected. A
dryline takes shape on a north-south line stretching from near
Big Spring southward towards Dryden that Monday afternoon.
Forecast soundings for eastern zones continue to show storms being
possible with some capable of becoming severe. Exact location of
the dryline will change over the coming days, so stay aware of the
forecast as details are ironed out over the weekend.

The upper level trough that will have brought windy conditions on
Monday exits the area on Tuesday. Temperatures fall slightly, but
remain above normal and increase further on Wednesday with most
reaching back into the upper 80s to low 90s. A backdoor cold front
is pushed through Thursday morning and begins a slow trend
downward for afternoon temperatures. Friday sees the coolest air
return with highs managing to reach into the 60s and 70s. Meager
rain chances return with the aforementioned front, but given that
much can change between this forecast issuance and then, expect
that to evolve over the next several days. Outside of rain chances
late next week, conditions will be quite dry and contribute to an
increased concern for fire weather that will be detailed in the
discussion below.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. A nocturnal low-
level jet will keep southeasterly winds elevated tonight at the
West Texas terminals, with winds becoming lighter and shifting to
the south and southwest after daybreak. Winds will become elevated
and intermittently gusty during the afternoon, with gusts to
20-25kt possible. After sunset, gusts will diminish for all but
MAF and FST, where the return of the low-level jet will produce
another round of gusty southerly and southeasterly winds through
the end of the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement remains for this afternoon as
critically low RHs, above average temperatures, and breezy winds
make for near critical fire weather conditions. Winds decrease
tonight with recoveries being poor to fair from west to east across
the region. Winds stay on the lighter side for Saturday and Sunday,
but temperatures continue to climb into the upper 80s and low 90s
with persistent downslope flow. Further RFDs are likely needed for
these days as ERCs generally remain between the 50th and 75th
percentiles with higher values across the Big Bend and Terrell
County.

Monday sees the approach of an upper level trough with a mid level
jet rounding the southern edge of the system. This jet looks to
orientate itself west to east across SE NM and West Texas. Highest
winds will be confined to the mountains, but strong and gusty winds
expand into the adjacent plains. Min RHs bottom out in the single
digits for much of the area. Widespread critical to extreme fire
weather conditions are expected that afternoon and evening,
especially to the west of the dryline that will establish itself in
the eastern Permian Basin. East of the dryline will be a sharp
cutoff of fire weather concerns as winds decrease and moisture
returns help mitigate otherwise dry fuels.

Winds decrease Monday night and into Tuesday, but dry conditions
hang on into the middle of the coming week. Temperatures keep the
trend of remaining above normal with critically low RHs expected
each afternoon. Moisture improves somewhat with the passage of a
backdoor front late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               89  59  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 87  55  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   87  59  93  63 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            91  60  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           78  57  79  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    86  52  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    86  50  87  53 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     88  58  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   88  60  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     91  57  92  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...84