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000
FXUS64 KMAF 142211
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
511 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Oh, happy day.  KMAF has cracked 90F for the first time this year.
WV imagery shows the west coast upper trough has made landfall,
leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under zonal-to-southwest
flow aloft. Aside from some Mexican mountain wave clouds streaming
across the river into the Presidio Valley, skies are mostly sunny,
with temperatures this afternoon looking to be the warmest so far
this spring.

Tonight, the west coast trough will push east, arriving just north
of the Four Corners by 18Z Monday.  A 30+kt LLJ is set to develop in
the east, advecting rich Gulf moisture up the Pecos River Valley,
w/60+F surface dewpoints into the southeast zones by 12Z Monday.
This, in conjunction with abundant cloud cover, will keep minimums ~
14-16F above normal.  This return flow will sharpen up a dryline mid-
CWA by 12Z Monday.

Monday, leeside troughing on the Front Range will induce westerlies
out over the higher terrain.  The NAM12 develops a respectable
mountain wave signature over the Guadalupes by late morning, and
this looks to continue through Monday evening.  As such, we`ve
upgraded the high wind watch to a warning there.  We`ve also issued
warnings for the adjacent plains.  WRT the Davis Mountains, stronger
700mb winds look to stay north, and they should remain in advisory
territory attm.  These winds will add a downslope warming component
to the mix, keeping highs AOA today`s.  These increased westerlies
will start mixing the dryline east as soon as mixing commences, to
the eastern edges of the CWA by 00Z Tuesday.  BLDU is expected west
of the dryline.  NBM suggests convection could develop along this
feature east of KMAF to the Western Low Rolling Plains as early as
18Z, although CAMS suggest more like 21Z.  This activity is forecast
to develop south along the dryline into the lower Trans Pecos during
the afternoon.  CAMs show deep layer shear 40-60kts area-wide Monday
afternoon and evening as a strong jet rounds the base of the trough.
Mid-level lapse rates in excess of 7C/km are forecast along and east
of the dryline, w/steepest lapse rates in the lower Trans Pecos. The
12Z HREF shows the best instability to accompany the shear will be
lower Trans Pecos /southeast Permian Basin.  The dryline will begin
retreating after sundown, making it almost to KMAF before the Pac
front meets up with it, and drives it east overnight.  This should
be the second round of convection, although thankfully the Pac front
arrives after things have stabilized a bit.  CAMs suggest this will
be a quick event, but until the Pac front/dryline clears to the
east, we`ll stick with the NBM.  The Pac front should cool things
down overnight, but lows should stay and average of 4-6F above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

The upper low that will have brought strong, gusty winds to the
region Monday moves off to the northeast for Tuesday. Westerly flow
continues into the middle of the week and will help keep
temperatures well above normal with most spots in the upper 80s to
low 90s. Overnight lows stay in the 50s for most. An upper low
moving across the Northern US and Canada pushes a front through the
area on Friday and brings temperatures closer to normal across the
Permian Basin and Pecos River Valley. Clouds and showers take
hold behind the front and rain chances stick around through the
weekend. Temperatures end up much cooler in the 60s and 70s for
Saturday and Sunday.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 509 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. SW-W surface winds will
decouple and back after sunset as a LLJ gets going, then veer back
to SW Monday, increase, and become gusty as leeside troughing
strengthens. High clouds should increase overnight, then decrease
a little after sunup Monday. BLDU will be possible Monday
afternoon, but we`ll restrict a mention of this to KCNM, where
winds will be strongest.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions persist with above
average temperatures and critically low RHs. Recoveries tonight will
be poor west of the TX/NM border and good to excellent to the east.
An approaching upper level low and associated jet bring strong,
gusty winds to much of the region during the day on Monday.
Sustained westerly/southwesterly winds between 30-40 mph are
expected with gusts up to 55 mph for areas out west. Higher gusts
will be possible in the mountains. A dryline takes form near
Midland/Odessa southward towards McCamey and Dryden denoting a sharp
drop off in fire weather concerns in the eastern zones of the CWA.
Single digit RHs are expected west of the dryline where ERCs sit
around the 75th percentile.

As the upper low gradually moves out of the area Monday night and
into Tuesday, a Pacific front slides across the region. Recoveries
become poor areawide with critically low RHs expected for Tuesday
and into Wednesday. Further fire weather products will needed with
future updates with the return of moisture unlikely until the end of
this coming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               64  94  54  87 /   0  20  20   0
Carlsbad                 60  87  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   65  94  59  92 /   0  10  10   0
Fort Stockton            65  97  56  87 /   0  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           61  78  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    59  87  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    54  88  43  78 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     64  92  54  85 /   0  10  10   0
Odessa                   65  92  55  85 /   0  10  10   0
Wink                     62  94  52  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ Monday for Andrews-Central Brewster County-Chinati
     Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-
     Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ Monday to 2 AM CDT
     /1 AM MDT/ Tuesday for Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory from noon Monday to 2 AM CDT Tuesday for Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for Chaves Plains-
     Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM Monday to 1 AM MDT Tuesday for Eddy
     County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 1 AM MDT Tuesday for Central
     Lea County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...44