171
ACUS11 KWNS 081824
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081823
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-082030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0702
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 PM CDT Wed May 08 2024

Areas affected...eastern New York into southern New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 081823Z - 082030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few isolated strong thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Temperatures have warmed rapidly in the wake of a warm
front and mid-level clouds across eastern New York. With
temperatures warming into the 70s to low 80s. However, coincident
with this heating, low-level moisture has mixed-out substantially
across central New York. There remains a favorable corridor with
deeper moisture directly behind the front where sufficient
instability may support some stronger storms with the potential for
large hail. Damaging wind gusts may also be possible given the dry
mid-levels and deeply mixed boundary later. Within the narrow
corridor of greater instability directly behind the warm front, some
stronger storms are possible given moderate instability and strong
deep layer shear (60-70 knots per SPC mesoanalysis). The narrow
corridor of the threat should keep strong storms somewhat isolated
and therefore, a severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely.

..Bentley/Smith.. 05/08/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON   41247094 41177287 41527427 41917487 41997512 43837416
            43797185 42787075 42047066 41247094