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000
FXUS64 KMEG 181131
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
631 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Severe weather chances begin to increase this afternoon. Damaging
winds and large hail are the primary threats. A secondary round
of severe storms is anticipated this evening, but confidence is
low due to arrival time and atmospheric stability. Wet conditions
will continue through the weekend before high pressure slides in.
Sunday and Monday will be much cooler and drier to start the work
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

An upper-level trough will move through the north-central U.S.
today. Concurrently, a surface low will move through Missouri as a
cold front advances into the Ozarks. Warm and moist air aided by
surface heating will enhance discrete cell development this
afternoon.

Over the Mid-South, 0-3km lapse rates are steep (~8 C/km), 30-40kts
of 0-6 km bulk shear also aided by low-level convergence, may result
in strong to severe storms this afternoon prior to the main line
arrival. HREF probabilities of CAPE >2000 J/kg peak near 3 PM at
around 30-50% while probabilities of CAPE >1500 J/kg are around
80%. Depicted on mid-level GOES water vapor imagery, a pocket of
dry air aloft and near 70 degree dewpoints at the surface, may aid
in intensification of updrafts this afternoon. Confidence is
lower than desired, but deterministic soundings are indicative of
an environment supportive of severe weather.

A line of storms associated with the upper level trough looks to
approach the Mid-South this evening around 7 PM. The impacts
associated with this line are limited due to timing and atmosphere
stabilization. From previous forecasts, a cold pool over Missouri
looks to develop earlier than anticipated putting more of focus
on the afternoon round. Damaging winds and large hail look to be
the primary threats for the afternoon round as SRH values are low
(less than 50 m^2/s^2) with not much curvature is noted in low
level hodographs. If the atmosphere remains unstable for the
evening line of storms, damaging winds and hail are still the
primary threats. Although low-level shear is not forecast to be
that strong, a few QLCS tornadoes will be possible (as there is an
uptick of SRH values) with rotating cells embedded within the
line.

A brief lull in shower activity is expected Friday afternoon for
most of the region. Another round of showers and thunderstorms
approaches on Saturday. Thunder chances remain low as surface
temperatures will be on the cooler side in the mid 60s.

After this round of showers, high pressure will gradually begin to
slide in by Sunday to return rainfree conditions. Cooler
temperatures are associated with the high as lows Sunday and Monday
morning are forecast to be in the 40s. Monday will feel much cooler
as dry air and brisk northerly winds will prevail. Temperatures will
begin to warm back to near and above climatology early next week.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Challenging TAF period with significant low-level moisture streaming
up from the south. IFR ceilings expected to lift to MFVR and VFR by
mid-day and winds will become gusty out of the SSW. By early
afternoon strong to severe TS expected. Later in the evening and
overnight, expecting a broken QLCS to move across all terminals
and ceilings will drop to IFR again. Winds will quicklty shift
around to the northwest with frontal passage. IFR to possible LIFR
will persist into the daylight hours on Friday.

DKJ

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...DKJ