047
FXUS62 KMFL 020715
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
315 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern across
South Florida at the low to mid levels keeping the region under a
typical easterly regime. Drier air begins to filter in as a mid-level
ridge begins to strengthen in the wake of a weak trough passing
through yesterday. Convective activity will be extremely limited
today and Friday and anything that does manage to develop along
sea breeze collisions will heavily favored over interior and
Southwest Florida areas.

Outside of a rouge shower or thunderstorm, prevailing conditions
will be quite nice with partly cloudy skies and highs in the lower
to mid 80s. Across interior and southwest portions of the area,
afternoon highs will be a bit warmer in the upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Not much change is expected through the long term period as stout
mid-level ridging will maintain the easterly regime across South
Florida into next week. This easterly surface flow will allow the
eastern breeze to dominate any potential for convective initiation,
with east coast metro areas seeing a slight chance for a shower
or storm during the early afternoon and and mid to late afternoon
for interior and southwest portions of the area. Overall rain
chances remain low through the period (less than 20 percent)
as drier air and the absence of synoptic forcing should limit
widespread convection. For the few showers and storms that are
able to develop, the most likely area to see them will be across
the Everglades and Southwest Florida thanks to the breezy easterly
surface flow.


Temperatures will be near to just above normal through the extended
period. The highs will rise into the upper 80s across SW FL and interior,
while remaining in the low to mid 80s along the Atlantic Coast. The
overnight lows will be in the 60s, except for low to mid 70s across
the east coast metro areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 204 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR prevail through 13-14Z, then another round of showers is
possible, especially early in the afternoon with sea breeze
development. Most of the thunderstorm activity during the late
afternoon hours should remain further inland and away form the
terminals. Winds will ESE around 6kt through 14Z, then in the
10-12kt range for the rest of the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Mostly benign conditions will continue through the end of the week.
There will be chances for showers and a few thunderstorms each day,
which could create locally hazardous conditions. Other than the convective
threat, there is not expected to be concerns for marine conditions.
Seas will generally remain at 2 to 4 feet in the Atlantic waters and
2 feet or less in the Gulf waters. Winds will be around 10-15 kts
out of the east.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Breezy easterly flow will lead to an elevated risk for rip currents
across all Atlantic beaches through the remainder of the week and into
the upcoming weekend. Highest rip current risk today will be maximized
across the Palm Beach County beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            84  73  84  73 /  20  10  10   0
West Kendall     86  70  85  70 /  20  10  10   0
Opa-Locka        86  72  86  72 /  20  10  10   0
Homestead        85  72  84  72 /  20  10  10   0
Fort Lauderdale  83  73  83  73 /  20  10  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  84  73  83  73 /  20  10  10  10
Pembroke Pines   87  72  87  73 /  20  10  10   0
West Palm Beach  84  71  83  71 /  20  10   0   0
Boca Raton       85  72  85  73 /  20  10  10  10
Naples           89  70  88  70 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE/BEACHES....Rizzuto
AVIATION...17