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000
FXUS62 KMFL 151406
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1006 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

High pressure centered over the western Atlantic continues to
bring dry conditions to South Florida today. The latest 12Z KMFL
sounding shows a slight increase in moisture compared to the past
couple of days with a PWAT value of 0.70 inches. While a breezy
easterly wind flow will continue throughout most of the day, the
air mass still remains too dry to support any type of shower
activity across the region. High temperatures this afternoon will
rise to around 80 across the east coast and into the mid to upper
80s across Southwest Florida.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 208 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Mid-level ridging remains in place across the Gulf of Mexico and
South Florida this morning, showing up nicely on the latest 00z
sounding out of MFL in the form of a stout subsidence inversion.
With nocturnal stratification occurring overnight and lowering
mixing heights, smoke from the 137 Fire and other area wildfires
could result in locally hazy/smoky conditions in the vicinity of
these wildfires overnight and shortly after sunrise. This could
result in areas of reduced visibility on nearby roads leading to
hazardous driving conditions so be sure to exercise caution if you
will be out and about in these areas. Low temperatures tonight will
continue to gradually moderate with temperatures in the upper 50s
west of Lake Okeechobee, 60s across most coastal areas, and
temperatures near 70 along the immediate east coast. With the
recoupling and enhancement of winds with diurnal processes after
sunrise this morning, expect yet another dry and pleasant day across
the region with breezy easterly flow. The onshore component will
continue to moderate the low-level boundary layer which will allow
for an increase in cloud cover at times, particularly along the
east coast of South Florida. While relative humidity values will
continue to recover, residual dry air could act to allow for
continued increased localized fire concerns across the area as
additional wildfires could be possible. Highs later today will
rise into the low 80s across the east coast metro areas with
higher temperatures in the mid to upper 80s across the western
half of the region. A similar forecast is in store for Tuesday
with a slight enhancement in easterly surface winds, high
temperatures will reach similar values with minimal rain chances
continuing throughout the period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 208 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

The extended period kicks off with residual dry air and surface
high pressure over the region. A warming trend will continue
through the week as the low level boundary moistens and the
persistent ridge of high pressure erodes. A weak surface front
will enter northern Florida during the middle to late portion of
the work week, however given the upper level synoptic forcing
advecting away from the region, it appears that the frontal boundary
will become frontolytic in nature and stall just to the north of
the region. Remaining of the southern side of the diffuse boundary
will allow for warm air advection to continue in earnest which will
act to facilitate an continuing increase in air temperatures. The
gradual warming trend will continue throughout the work week (with
some places reaching into the lower 90s) and sea breeze boundaries
could permit some potential for showers and possibly thunderstorms
to sneak back into the forecast by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Easterly winds will increase during the late morning hours and
will range between 10 and 15 kts through the afternoon. At KAPF,
winds will become westerly this afternoon as a Gulf breeze
develops.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 208 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

A moderate to fresh easterly wind flow will continue through the
middle portion of the week across the local waters. These winds may
enhance at times which could usher in a period of hazardous marine
conditions mainly over the Atlantic waters during this time frame.
Seas across the Atlantic waters will range between 2 and 4 feet
through the early portion of the week while the Gulf seas remain at
2 feet or less.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 208 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue today across the
Atlantic Coast beaches. As onshore wind flow enhances towards the
middle of the week, the rip current risk along the east coast of South
Florida could become high.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Dry airmass will continue across South FL with high pressure in
control. Min RH values in the 30s are expected over interior and
SW FL locations today. Despite winds not meeting critical
thresholds, low RH values and persistent dry weather will result
in continued fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  69  82  72 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     82  64  83  68 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        82  67  83  71 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        81  67  82  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  79  69  80  72 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  80  69  81  71 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   83  68  84  71 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  79  67  81  69 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       81  68  82  71 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           85  64  87  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hadi
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION/UPDATE...CWC